Belgium's Grand Baromètre: MR loses ground in Wallonia, PTB dominates Brussels, Vlaams Belang leads in Flanders

Ipsos's Grand Baromètre, published on 12 June 2026, paints a fragmented picture of Belgium's political landscape two years after the 2024 federal elections. Conducted online from 1 to 9 June among 2,605 adults, the poll reveals significant shifts: Vlaams Belang overtakes the N-VA in Flanders, the MR loses ground to both the PS and Les Engagés in Wallonia, and the PTB-PVDA establishes a durable lead in Brussels. The maximum margin of error is ±3.1% in Wallonia and Flanders and ±4.0% in Brussels.

MR in decline

In Wallonia the MR falls to 20.1%, a drop of 8.1 percentage points from its historic 28.2% in the 2024 federal elections. Les Engagés, at 20.2%, edges ahead by a tenth of a point, a symbolic reversal for the two governing partners. The PS leads comfortably with 29% (its highest score since entering opposition), gaining 1.1 points since March. The PTB remains stable at 16.8% and Ecolo at 8.1%. The MR also loses an estimated 7 of its 19 seats in the Chamber.

In Brussels the MR slides to 13.9%, a decline of 8.7 points since the first post-election barometer. Les Engagés, which had rebounded to 13.2% in March, falls back below the 10% mark amid discontent over education reforms. Sophie Wilmès (MR) remains the most popular politician across regions, while Paul Magnette (PS) and Maxime Prévot (Les Engagés) top the Walloon ranking.

Flanders shifts right

Vlaams Belang reaches 26.6% (±4.8 points up from 2024), overtaking the N-VA, which is stuck at 22.3% (De Morgen gives 22.1%, the weakest since 2024). The gap of more than four points puts the far-right party clearly ahead. Vooruit (12.9%) and cd&v (12.6%) battle for third place, both essentially stable. The liberal Open VLD remains below its 2024 result but no longer dips below the electoral threshold. Groen scores 7% and Anders 6.9%. Tom Van Grieken and Barbara Pas register among the few Flemish politicians gaining in personal popularity.

A separate RTBF-VRT-De Standaard survey two weeks earlier had shown the N-VA comfortably leading, a divergence that underlines the volatility in Flemish polling.

Brussels tilts far left

For the fourth consecutive Grand Baromètre, the far-left PTB leads in the capital with 24.8% (De Morgen reports 26.3%, a discrepancy attributable to rounding or subsample weighting). The socialists follow at 18.3% and the MR third at 13.9%. Ecolo climbs to 8.9% (+1.8 points in three months) and Défi returns to 6.6%, matching its immediate post-election score. The PTB's +9.4-point surge since the first post-election poll makes it the dominant force in Brussels.

Methodology and context

The Grand Baromètre was fielded online by Ipsos between 1 and 9 June 2026 with 2,605 respondents: 1,002 in Wallonia, 1,001 in Flanders, and 602 in the 19 municipalities of the Brussels-Capital Region. The maximum error margin, for a percentage of 50% and a 95% confidence level, is ±3.1% in Wallonia and Flanders and ±4.0% in Brussels. While small changes fall within these intervals, the fifth consecutive barometer showing MR erosion and a strengthening of the extremes confirms a trend that is no longer within the noise.