The Bank of Russia unexpectedly lowered its key interest rate by 50 basis points to 15.5%. This marks the sixth consecutive reduction in borrowing costs, aimed at rescuing a weakening economy ahead of the approaching fourth anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine. Despite rising inflation, policymakers deemed stimulating growth a priority, while also signaling the possibility of further cuts in the coming months.

Unexpected Rate Cut

The Bank of Russia cut its rate by 50 basis points to 15.5%, a move contrary to most economists' forecasts.

Support for a Weakening Economy

The decision aims to stimulate growth in a country where high borrowing costs hinder the development of businesses not related to the military.

Inflationary Pressure Dismissed

Despite rising prices, the bank deemed inflation a temporary phenomenon, prioritizing financial liquidity for enterprises.

Political Influence

This move followed intervention by Vladimir Putin, who demanded that the central bank restore economic momentum.

On Friday, February 13, 2026, the Bank of Russia decided to lower its key rate from 16% to 15.5%. This decision surprised most market analysts, with only a few having predicted such a move. This is the sixth consecutive cut in the cost of money, indicating the monetary authorities' determination to combat the economic slowdown. The Bank of Russia justified its step as necessary to support domestic economic activity, which is suffering from high interest rates and Western sanctions. Although official statements mention the stabilization of inflation, experts point out that price pressure remains high, with recent increases interpreted by the bank as "one-off factors". Since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the Russian economy has shifted to a war footing, initially forcing drastic rate hikes to 20% to curb capital flight and protect the ruble. The actions regarding interest rates primarily aim to provide relief to businesses grappling with record-high financing costs. However, Russia's economic growth is currently driven almost exclusively by military production, creating structural imbalances. The decision came just ten days after consultations between President Vladimir Putin and high-ranking government and central bank officials. Analysts emphasize that monetary policy is increasingly becoming hostage to the needs of the state budget and the defense sector. In its statement, the bank announced it would monitor the sustainability of the decline in price dynamics before making further moves. 15,5% — is now the main interest rate in Russia The future of the Russian economy remains uncertain, with forecasts suggesting very low growth in the coming quarters. The next meeting of policymakers will be crucial in determining whether the easing cycle will continue or whether mounting inflation will force a return to restrictive policy. „The Bank of Russia will assess the need for further cuts to the key rate at upcoming meetings depending on the sustainability of the decline in inflation.” — Komunikat Banku Rosji Zmiana parametrów polityki pieniężnej: Główna stopa procentowa: 16,0% → 15,5%; Liczba kolejnych obniżek: 5 → 6 Główna stopa procentowa Banku Rosji: 2025-10: 18.0, 2025-11: 17.5, 2025-12: 17.0, 2026-01: 16.0, 2026-02-13: 15.5 Podkreśla desperację Kremla w ratowaniu gospodarki mimo ryzyka inflacyjnego i rosnących kosztów wojny na Ukrainie. | Akcentuje suwerenną politykę monetarną Rosji i próbę stabilizacji rynku wewnętrznego wbrew zachodnim sankcjom.

Mentioned People

  • Władimir Putin — President of Russia, who pressured for lower financing costs to stimulate the economy.