Copernicus reports August 2026 global temperature hit 1.65°C above pre-industrial levels

Global surface and ocean temperatures

The Copernicus Climate Change Service, implemented by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), reported that August 2026 was the warmest month in its ERA5 dataset dating back to 1940, tying with July 2023. Global surface air temperatures averaged 16.96 degrees Celsius, exceeding the 1991–2020 climatological average by 0.85 degrees Celsius. When measured against the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline, the global average was 1.65 degrees Celsius higher. The reading represents the first month since November 2025 in which planetary temperatures surpassed the 1.5-degree threshold outlined in the 2015 Paris Agreement. Extrapolar oceans between 60 degrees South and 60 degrees North reached a daily average surface temperature of 21.11 degrees Celsius, matching previous peaks from March 2024 as an intensifying El Niño developed in the tropical Pacific.

Western European heat and continental water stress

For Europe as a whole, August 2026 was the fourth-warmest August on record with an average continental temperature of 20.26 degrees Celsius, which is 1.10 degrees Celsius above the 1991–2020 average. Over the entire June-to-August summer period, Europe experienced its third-hottest season behind 2024 and 2022, while Western Europe had its warmest summer on record, surpassing the previous peak in 2003. Heatwaves began as early as May and persisted through August, causing widespread drought and elevated wildfire activity across western, central, and eastern regions. River discharge fell sharply across the continent, with exceptionally low water levels recorded along the Danube, Rhine, Dnieper, and Southern Bug. Flow rates along the Vistula, Glomma, Rhone, Seine, and Po also dropped before late-August rainfall provided slight recovery.

ECMWF climate lead Samantha Burgess contextualized the global data release.

This August has been a significant month in global climate history.

Population exposure and European mortality

An analysis by Agence France-Presse based on Copernicus ERA5 data found that 1.3 billion people worldwide lived through their hottest boreal summer between June and August 2026. Seasonal average temperature records were broken in 52 countries across all continents. In southern and western Europe, eleven countries, including Italy and Spain, registered record seasonal heat, with grid-level measurements across Italy showing that 65% of monitored areas set monthly records. In France and Switzerland, seasonal temperatures rose more than 3 degrees Celsius above the 1991–2020 benchmark. Between mid-June and late August, at least 35,000 heat-related excess deaths were recorded across eight European countries.

Burgess emphasized the direct damage caused by these sustained anomalies.

The effects are increasingly felt across communities, economies, and ecosystems around the world.

Severe heat in the Americas, Asia, and Africa

High temperatures extended across the southern and tropical latitudes, with nine countries across Central America and northern South America recording their hottest June–August period on record. In Southeast Asia, persistent dry conditions and heat affected nearly 100 million people across Indonesia, igniting forest fires that sent plumes of toxic smoke into neighboring Malaysia. In Africa, approximately 450 million people experienced record-high temperatures across 18 countries. In Sudan, deficient rainfall delayed the wet season and reduced the flow of the Nile River, compounding agricultural collapse and severe food insecurity in a country already enduring civil war.