AfD wins Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election with 37% but faces coalition blockade

First place in Schwerin

Alternative for Germany (AfD) placed first in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election on Sunday, securing 37% of the vote. The party doubled its previous result in the state, moving ahead of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), which finished second, while the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) lost ground. Gains were driven by mobilization among previous non-voters and dissatisfaction with inflation, policy stagnation, and migration policy. However, the party outcome in Schwerin fell short of the 43.8% recorded two weeks earlier in Saxony-Anhalt under candidate Ulrich Siegmund.

Candidate profile and public ratings

Holm, a 56-year-old trained electrician, economics graduate, and father of four, worked for over 20 years as a radio host at Antenne MV. He joined the AfD in 2013, became state spokesperson, and entered the Schwerin state parliament in 2016 before winning election to the Bundestag in 2017. During the campaign, he presented a moderate demeanor, often appearing with rolled-up sleeves and riding a bicycle with a child seat to events in Schwerin. In television debates on ntv and NDR, however, he struggled on the defensive against state minister-president Manuela Schwesig. Rostock political scientist Wolfgang Muno assessed Holm's public positioning.

I believe he is a wolf in sheep's clothing.

Public satisfaction numbers reflected Holm's contested standing. In state politician ratings, only 28% of residents expressed satisfaction with Holm, compared to 32% for Die Linke candidate Simone Oldenburg and 61% for Schwesig.

Internal party friction

The campaign unfolded alongside internal conflicts within the state branch. Earlier in the year, former state parliamentary group leader Nikolaus Kramer was blocked from the lead candidacy and removed from his leadership post, with co-chair Enrico Schult taking both roles. The party entered the election with Schult as official lead candidate and Holm as candidate for minister-president. Federal AfD co-leader Tino Chrupalla attended a campaign rally for Kramer one week before the vote, praising him without mentioning Holm.

State general secretary Dario Seifert, a 32-year-old federal lawmaker whose local chapter claims the largest membership in eastern Germany, also attended the Kramer event. Holm had previously attempted to expel Seifert over his past membership in the NPD youth organization. Right-wing commentator Benedikt Kaiser criticized Holm on the platform X.

The total substantive, strategic, and campaign failure has repercussions for the entire AfD.

Blocked path to government

Despite placing first, the AfD lacks the partners necessary to form a governing majority in Schwerin. Other parties maintain their refusal to enter a coalition with the AfD, while the BSW remained too weak to provide an alternative alliance. After previously campaigning for a single-party government, Holm changed course near the end of the race and announced plans to invite all parties to discussions.

Because this is not about us or anyone or any parties and perks or this or that. It is about getting our state back on track.

With no other party willing to enter coalition negotiations on Sunday evening, Holm has no viable route into the state chancellery.