Nvidia, a key supplier of artificial intelligence processors, published a revenue forecast for the first fiscal quarter of around $78 billion on Wednesday evening. This amount significantly exceeded the average analyst expectations, which hovered around $72.8 billion. Despite this positive surprise, investor reaction was cool and even disappointed. The company's stock on the New York exchange fell by over 5% on Thursday. Market experts interpret this reaction as a signal that market participants are seeking stronger guarantees for the long-term sustainability of the current AI spending frenzy. Valuation pressure is also created by concerns about overheating in the segment and a possible future shift in the nature of demand.
Forecast Exceeds Expectations
Nvidia announced a revenue forecast for the first fiscal quarter of around $78 billion. This result is significantly higher than the analyst consensus of $72.8 billion. CEO Jensen Huang pointed to the broad and growing adoption of AI solutions by enterprises.
Cool Market Reaction
Despite optimistic numbers, Nvidia's stock fell by 5.5% to $184.89. This was the largest single-day drop since April 2025. Analyses by agencies Bloomberg and Reuters indicate deep investor skepticism regarding the sustainability of the AI boom.
Deeper Investor Concerns
Experts say the market is no longer looking just for good quarterly results, but for evidence of long-term growth. Concerns relate to the potential overheating of the AI economy, future competition, and a shift in demand from the model training phase to the stage of their daily use.
Impact on the Entire Sector
Nvidia's declines dragged down the entire semiconductor sector and AI-related firms. Other tech companies also saw losses in their stock prices. Bloomberg Intelligence described the situation as "sinking chipmakers" because Nvidia failed to ease general fears.
American tech giant Nvidia, whose valuation in recent years has made it one of the most important companies in the world, experienced a paradoxical moment in recent days. On Wednesday evening, the company published a revenue forecast for the upcoming quarter that nominally should have thrilled the market. Predictions reaching around $78 billion significantly exceeded the analyst consensus of $72.8 billion. CEO Jensen Huang emphasized the expansive growth in demand for AI solutions, which is moving beyond large data centers and encompassing more and more enterprises. Despite this, investors reacted with clear disappointment rather than enthusiasm. On Thursday, Nvidia's stock on the New York exchange fell by 5.5 percent, to $184.89 per share. This was the largest single-day drop since mid-April 2025. News agencies Bloomberg and Reuters in numerous dispatches and analyses unequivocally described the market reaction as cool, even disappointed. Reuters described the moment of the results publication as a "meh moment" and a "damp squib," which can be translated as a dud or a plain "so-so." „Nvidia's 'meh' moment.” — Reuters Experts cited by Bloomberg explained that the market is no longer simply looking for good results, but for stronger signals that the current spending boom on artificial intelligence is structural and long-lasting. Nvidia has become a symbol of the AI revolution, and its graphics processing units (GPUs) are the industry standard for training advanced language models. The company achieved the status of the world's most valuable listed company in 2025, surpassing Microsoft and Apple, and its revenue in the fourth quarter of 2025 grew by 73 percent year-over-year. Valuation pressure is created by several key risk factors. First, there are concerns about a possible overheating of the AI-based economy and a slowdown in the pace of investment. Second, investors are asking about Nvidia's future market position when the phase of massive model training begins to give way to the phase of their deployment and operation, which may require different hardware solutions. Third, the company remains largely dependent on a narrow group of its largest customers, so-called hyperscalers, such as Amazon, Microsoft, or Google. Bloomberg Intelligence's analysis summed up the situation succinctly: "Chipmakers are sinking because Nvidia failed to ease AI fears." The negative sentiment spread to the entire sector. Declines were felt by other semiconductor companies and tech firms linked to the AI theme, as noted in a series of dispatches titled "Stock Movers." Parallel to the events in the tech market, a serious international incident occurred on Thursday in waters near Cuba. Cuban armed forces shot and killed four people aboard a speedboat registered in Florida. According to an official statement from the Cuban authorities, the vessel opened fire on a Cuban patrol boat, and there were ten people on board transporting weapons who were planning an uprising. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio informed that the United States is conducting its own investigation into the matter. The incident constitutes another flashpoint in the long-standing and deeply rooted conflict between the two countries. Diplomatic relations between the USA and Cuba were restored in 2015 during the presidency of Barack Obama, but remain extremely tense, especially under successive U.S. administrations. This episode threatens to further escalate them, although the provided materials currently lack details regarding the White House's direct response.
Mentioned People
- Jensen Huang — CEO and co-founder of Nvidia.
- Marco Rubio — U.S. Secretary of State, informed about the ongoing investigation into the maritime incident involving Cuba.
- Kunjan Sobhani — Bloomberg Intelligence analyst, commenting on the market reaction to Nvidia's forecast.