The European Central Bank predicts that food price inflation will stabilize this year at a level slightly above 2 percent. Christine Lagarde highlights the success of the fight against price increases, while warning about the impact of public perception on the economy. Simultaneously, OPEC+ delegates are preparing for a cautious increase in crude oil production by 137 thousand barrels per day in April, using geopolitical tensions as a backdrop for their decisions.

ECB on Food Inflation

Christine Lagarde forecasts stabilization of food price growth near the 2 percent level still in 2026.

OPEC+ Signals Production Increases

Delegates suggest a production increase of 137 thousand barrels per day in April under favorable market conditions.

Brazil Moves Closer to Europe

The lower house of the Brazilian parliament ratified a key trade agreement between the European Union and the Mercosur bloc.

Historic Reform in Mexico

The Mexican Congress passed a bill reducing the work week to 40 hours, marking a breakthrough in regional workers' rights.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde pointed to a systematic decline in food price dynamics, which is expected to reach a level close to the inflation target before the end of this year. Despite optimistic forecasts, the ECB chief noted that the institution must closely observe how citizens perceive inflation, as their feelings may differ from official statistical indicators. This discrepancy can realistically influence consumption decisions and wage pressure, forcing policymakers to remain cautious regarding interest rates. In the energy commodities market, countries within the OPEC+ are leaning towards a gradual increase in oil supply. Sources close to the organization suggest raising production by 137 thousand barrels per day in April. This decision is being made in an atmosphere of geopolitical tension, including expectations for talks between the USA and Iran, which allows the cartel to implement changes without causing sharp price shocks. At the same time, JP Morgan analysts have raised long-term gold price forecasts, pointing to a ceiling of $4,500 per ounce. Since the oil crisis of the 1970s, the strategic decisions of the oil producers' cartel have been a key factor shaping global inflation and the economic growth dynamics of industrialized nations.Significant systemic changes are underway in North and South America. Brazil's Lower House has approved the free trade agreement between the EU and Mercosur, which after a decade of negotiations paves the way for closer transatlantic cooperation. Meanwhile, Mexico is preparing for a historic labor market reform, reducing the work week to 40 hours. At the same time, Canadian Mark Carney is undertaking a key diplomatic mission in India, signaling Ottawa's pivot towards the dynamically developing markets of the Indo-Pacific region. Despite these positive trade signals, the International Monetary Fund warns of systemic risks in the USA. Although the American economy shows strong momentum, the growing public debt and potential new tariffs pose a threat to the stability of the global financial system in the coming years.„Crescita prezzi alimentari continuera' a calare, un po' sopra 2% entro anno.” (Food price growth will continue to decline, a little above 2% by the end of the year.) — Christine Lagarde

Mentioned People

  • Christine Lagarde — President of the European Central Bank
  • Mark Carney — Former Governor of the Bank of England and Bank of Canada, currently a Canadian government envoy in Asia
  • Claudia Sheinbaum — President of Mexico presenting electoral and labor reforms