US Considers Striking Iran After Geneva Talks and Dispute Over Iranian Missiles

The commander of US forces in the Middle East, Admiral Bradley Cooper, reportedly presented President Donald Trump with possible military scenarios regarding Iran on Thursday. According to media reports, this occurred as another round of indirect US-Iran talks was concluding in Geneva, involving envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, as well as Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi. The Iranians assessed the talks as the "most intensive and longest" since February and declared progress in discussions on elements of a nuclear agreement and sanctions, but without indicating a breakthrough. Gen. Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, was also said to have participated in the White House meeting and reportedly warned that an attack could mean a long war and deplete air defense missile stockpiles. Meanwhile, some Republicans and administration officials were reportedly pushing for Israel to play a leading role in any potential operation.2035 — horizon for ICBM[{"aspekt":"Trump's Assessment","przed":"Iran is working on missiles that will soon reach the US","po":"According to Reuters sources, the claim has no basis in intelligence reports"},{"aspekt":"DIA Assessment (2025)","przed":"No change in public assessment","po":"By 2035, Iran may refine a militarily useful ICBM"},{"aspekt":"Tehran's Position","przed":"Accusation of an ICBM program","po":"Iran denies it and cites a range limit of 2000 km"}]Key Points of the Last 48 Hours: February 25 — State of the Union Address; February 26 — Round of Talks in Geneva; February 26 — Military Operation Options; February 27 — Vance's StatementAfter the Islamic Revolution in 1979, US-Iran relations remained hostile for decades, with tensions deepened by disputes over the nuclear program. The JCPOA agreement was reached in 2015, but the US withdrew from it several years later, triggering a new spiral of sanctions and retaliatory actions. Vice President JD Vance, in an interview with the Washington Post, argued there was "no chance" that any potential strike would turn into a multi-year conflict in the region, though he cautioned that he did not know whether Trump would choose the military or diplomatic option. „Il n'y a aucune chance que cela se produise” (There is no chance that this will happen) — JD Vance Some European media also described the scale of the American military presence in the Persian Gulf region and the eastern Mediterranean, pointing to the concentration of several dozen key ships and over a hundred combat aircraft supported by logistics units. Although these forces are significant, they constitute only a fraction of the total US fleet, not one-third as some reports suggested. Simultaneously, the lack of official statements on the talks' outcomes maintained uncertainty about the next steps for Washington and Tehran. Reuters reported that a key element of Trump's argument from his address – the suggestion that Iran would "soon" obtain missiles capable of reaching US territory – finds no confirmation in known intelligence sources. According to cited sources, the public assessment of the DIA from 2025 has not changed, according to which Iran may need time until around 2035 to develop a militarily useful ICBM. Tehran rejects accusations of such a program, and some reports cite Iranian declarations about limiting missile range to 2000 km. In the background of tensions, signals also emerged of increased oil supply from the region ahead of an OPEC+ meeting, which the market links to concerns that the US-Iran dispute could disrupt exports.