The beginning of March 2026 brings a sudden warming to Western and Central Europe, with temperatures locally exceeding 20 degrees Celsius. While residents of Italy, France, and Germany enjoy spring-like weather, UN meteorologists warn of a possible return of the El Niño phenomenon as early as May. Global ocean warming could lead to new temperature records in the upcoming summer, altering global weather patterns.
Spring in Europe
Temperatures in Italy, France, and Germany reach 20 degrees Celsius due to anticyclone dominance.
UN Warning
Climatologists predict a likely return of El Niño in May, threatening new heat records.
Saharan Dust
France prepares for the arrival of a cloud of desert dust, which will limit visibility and sunshine.
End of La Niña
The period of the ocean's cooling influence has ended, giving way to neutral conditions before warming.
The first days of March 2026 were dominated by a strong high-pressure system that brought exceptionally warm, almost spring-like air masses to most European countries. In Italy, thermometers show up to 21 degrees Celsius, leading forecasters to declare the definitive end of winter. A similar situation prevails in Germany and France, where sunny weather draws people to parks, although frosts still occur at night. However, the stable weather in Western Europe could be disrupted by an unexpected atmospheric phenomenon – a cloud of Saharan dust is approaching France, which will diminish the blue sky and may affect air quality ahead of the coming weekend. The El Niño phenomenon involves an above-average increase in water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, which influences atmospheric circulation across the globe, often leading to extreme droughts or floods.Simultaneously, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a UN agency, issued a warning about the end of the La Niña phase, which had a cooling influence on the climate. According to the latest climate models, there is a high probability that after a neutral period, a rapid return of El Niño will occur. Experts predict that this phenomenon could trigger a wave of extreme heat as early as May, which, combined with ongoing climate warming, threatens to set new historical temperature maxima globally. In Europe, these effects may be felt in the form of more violent storms and periods of prolonged drought. El Niño is currently the central focus of climatologists' analyses. Although the current anticyclonic block provides Europe with a moment of respite, long-term forecasts suggest a rapid transition from a mild spring to an extremely hot summer. Scientists emphasize that the change in oceanic phase is a natural cycle, but the scale of the predicted anomalies is directly related to the excess energy accumulated in the oceans due to greenhouse gas emissions. Anticyclones, which currently shape the weather over the continent, may give way to more unpredictable low-pressure systems in the coming months if the UN forecasts regarding ocean warming are confirmed. The situation requires constant monitoring by national meteorological services.