The start of the week brought significant price cuts for natural gas on global markets. In the United States, futures contracts fell to their lowest level since October, losing over 7% of their value. Similar trends were noted in Europe, where, despite low storage levels, fuel prices reached five-week lows. The main factor cooling the market are meteorological forecasts predicting a warmer-than-usual winter.
Sharp Sell-Off in the USA
March futures contracts fell by 7.4% to the lowest level since October due to warm weather.
Europe with Lowest Prices
Despite low storage levels, prices in Europe fell by 5-7% thanks to stable supplies from Norway and LNG.
Weather Forecasts Key
Predictions of higher-than-usual temperatures in February have reduced concerns about heating demand on both continents.
The energy commodities market reacted with a sharp sell-off to the latest meteorological reports. On Monday, natural gas prices in the United States fell by 7.4%, reaching a level of $3.002 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). This is the lowest value since mid-October, breaking a multi-day streak of gains. The direct trigger for the sell-off were forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which indicate the arrival of a warm wave in the central and southern regions of the US, significantly reducing demand for heating. The situation in Europe shows a similar downward trend, although structural conditions remain tense. Benchmark contracts on the TTF exchange in Amsterdam fell by nearly 7%, reaching the lowest level in five weeks. Paradoxically, these declines are occurring at a time when European underground gas storage is more depleted than at the same time last year. However, analysts emphasize that stable supplies from Norway and regular shipments of liquefied natural gas (LNG) are effectively calming investor concerns about energy security before the end of the heating season. Historically, gas markets are characterized by the highest volatility during the winter period, due to the direct dependence of consumption on temperatures. Following the 2022 energy crisis, European countries drastically changed their supply structure, abandoning Russian pipelines in favor of LNG terminals. Although gas stocks in Europe are currently considered lower than the multi-year average for mid-February, the absence of extreme frosts means the specter of a deficit is receding. Experts from ANZ Research indicate that the market will remain extremely sensitive to any adjustments in short-term forecasts. Currently, pipeline supplies from Norway and maritime imports are operating at full capacity, allowing for smooth balancing of industrial and household needs without the need for a sharp increase in trading margins. Spadek cen gazu w USA (marzec 2026): 2025-10-17: 3.002, 2026-02-13: 3.245, 2026-02-16: 3.002 7.4% — was the Monday price drop for gas in the USA Porównanie rynków gazu: Spadek ceny: USA (poniedziałek) → 7,4%; Cena końcowa: Benchmark USA → 3,002 USD; Trend Europa: Ostatnie 5 tygodni → Najniższy poziom
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