Oil prices on global exchanges remain stable at the start of the week. Investors are closely monitoring reports ahead of scheduled talks between representatives of the United States and Iran in Geneva on Tuesday. While Brent and WTI prices have recorded only symbolic changes, analysts warn of potential volatility resulting from rising tensions in the Middle East and future OPEC+ decisions on production levels.

Minimal price fluctuations

Contracts for Brent and WTI crude changed in value by only 3 cents, indicating great investor caution ahead of talks in Geneva.

Crucial US-Iran talks

The meeting scheduled for Tuesday in Switzerland could decide the future of sanctions on Iranian oil and impact the global supply balance.

Long-term forecasts

Westpac analysts predict a drop to $60 per barrel by 2026, based on the expected increase in production.

A temporary stabilization has taken hold in the fuel markets, with brokers' attention shifting towards diplomacy. Investors are awaiting the resumption of talks between Washington and Tehran, scheduled for Tuesday in Geneva. A barrel of Brent crude is oscillating around $67.72-67.81, while the American WTI is valued within the range of $62.86-62.98. This situation results from the balancing of two opposing forces: fears of supply disruptions due to geopolitical tensions and the anticipated supply increase by the OPEC+ group. President Donald Trump has sharpened his rhetoric, suggesting that a regime change in the region would be the optimal solution. Such statements increase the risk premium, protecting the commodity from deeper price declines. However, analysts from Westpac point out that supply will be decisive in the longer term. They predict that by mid-2026, the price of Brent could fall to as low as $60 per barrel if the market is saturated with additional production. Relations between the USA and Iran deteriorated sharply in 2018 when the Trump administration unilaterally withdrew from the JCPOA nuclear deal. Since then, the oil market has become hostage to economic sanctions imposed on Tehran and incidents in the Strait of Hormuz. „Fears of oil flow disruptions stemming from Iran-US tensions are keeping prices stable, while OPEC+ is leaning towards resuming production increases from April.” — Reuters Analysis The market is currently in a waiting phase, described by brokers as the calm before the storm. The risk of an American military intervention remains a factor that could at any moment lead to a sharp spike in quotations. On the other hand, a potential breakthrough in nuclear talks could pave the way for the return of Iranian oil to world markets, which in turn would exert strong downward pressure on the price of black gold. Global oil prices (February 16, 2026): Brent (ICE): 67.81, WTI (NYMEX): 62.98 60 USD — forecast price of a Brent barrel in mid-2026 Media emphasize the diplomatic aspects of the talks and the impact of global supply, pointing to the need for de-escalation for the good of the world economy. | The decisive stance of Donald Trump towards Iran and the necessity of securing national interests against geopolitical threats are highlighted.

Mentioned People

  • Donald Trump — President of the United States, who suggested that a regime change in Iran would be the best solution to the current crisis.