French right-wing leader Marine Le Pen has announced she will not run in the 2027 presidential election if she is sentenced to wear an electronic monitoring bracelet. This declaration, made in the context of an ongoing trial regarding the misappropriation of EU funds, sheds new light on the succession within the National Rally. Meanwhile, the latest polls indicate serious political problems for Édouard Philippe, the right's main rival in Le Havre.

Le Pen's Conditional Withdrawal

The RN leader rules out running in 2027 if the court orders her to wear an electronic transmitter, which she deemed an obstacle to campaigning.

Dominance at the Agricultural Show

The Le Pen-Bardella duo gained significant support from farmers, contrasting with the government's difficulties in dialoguing with this professional group.

Opposition Leader's Crisis

Polls indicate Édouard Philippe may lose local elections in Le Havre, weakening his position as a presidential candidate.

Lecornu Government Reshuffle

The new cabinet composition strengthens the influence of Macron loyalists, aiming to consolidate power in the face of the right's rising poll numbers.

The French political scene has been dominated by Marine Le Pen's firm declaration regarding her political future. The leader of the National Rally emphasized in a series of interviews that wearing an electronic bracelet would prevent her from running a dignified presidential campaign in 2027. This decision is directly linked to the potential verdict in a case concerning the fictitious employment of assistants in the European Parliament. While Le Pen's supporters, like MP Jean-Philippe Tanguy, loudly profess their belief in her innocence, the politician herself is beginning to prepare the ground for a potential handover to Jordan Bardella. The joint appearance of the Le Pen-Bardella duo at the Paris Agricultural Show was interpreted by commentators as a display of unity and stability within the party. Jordan Bardella assured that he intends to „work hand in hand” with the current leader in the coming months, strengthening the image of a smooth succession within the party. Since the departure of Jean-Marie Le Pen in 2011, the party has undergone a profound transformation, distancing itself from its most radical slogans to become a real force capable of taking power in the Fifth Republic. While the right consolidates its forces, President Emmanuel Macron's camp is grappling with a polling decline of its leading figures. Particularly damaging for the center are data from Le Havre, where former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe risks losing his mayoral seat to a communist candidate, which would significantly diminish his chances in the race for the Élysée Palace. Simultaneously, the French government has been reshuffled, creating the „Lecornu III” cabinet, which favors individuals closely associated with President Macron and Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu. Maud Bregeon was appointed as a junior minister for energy, while retaining her role as government spokesperson. These changes in the state administration aim to calm the domestic situation in the face of numerous crises, from farmer protests to geopolitical tensions. However, the right's growing popularity among rural communities, evident at this year's Agricultural Show, suggests that the succession mechanisms within the RN and Le Pen's clear setting of conditions may define the political dynamics of the coming year ahead of the municipal and presidential elections. „Je continuerai de travailler main dans la main avec Marine Le Pen dans les prochains mois.” (I will continue to work hand in hand with Marine Le Pen in the coming months.) — Jordan Bardella

Mentioned People

  • Marine Le Pen — Leader of the RN parliamentary faction, the main figure of the right who rules out running for election under electronic monitoring.
  • Jordan Bardella — President of the National Rally, seen as the natural successor to Marine Le Pen.
  • Édouard Philippe — Former Prime Minister of France and Mayor of Le Havre, struggling with a decline in support in local polls.