According to the latest 'Living 2040' report, prepared in cooperation with the portal Nieruchomosci-online.pl, the Polish housing market is set for a significant evolution over the next fifteen years. While ownership will remain the dominant form of housing, the share of people using rental options will grow dynamically. Currently, 87% of Poles live in owner-occupied dwellings, one of the highest rates in the European Union, but financial barriers and lifestyle changes will gradually weaken this trend.

Dominance of Ownership Weakening

The current 87% share of ownership in the housing market will begin to decline in favor of renting by 2040.

Renting by Choice and Necessity

Young people choose renting for mobility, while others are forced into it due to a lack of creditworthiness.

Low Share of Commercial Rental

Poland still has one of the lowest rates of commercial rental in the entire European Union.

The analysis presented in the 'Living 2040' report indicates an inevitable change in Poland's housing structure. Experts emphasize that while the traditional attachment to property ownership still determines the Polish market, economic and social factors are forcing a revision of existing models. Currently, Poland, with 87% of people living in owner-occupied dwellings, holds a specific position in the European Union, also characterized by one of the lowest shares of commercial rental. The remaining 13% of the market is a mosaic comprising market-rate rentals, municipal housing, and units provided by families. The authors of the study prepared three development scenarios up to 2040. Each assumes a decline in the share of ownership in favor of renting, although the scale of this change varies depending on the adopted assumptions. This phenomenon has two faces. On one hand, renting is becoming a conscious lifestyle choice for younger generations, offering job mobility and lower financial risk associated with the lack of long-term debt. On the other hand, a growing group of people are being pushed into the rental market by low availability of mortgage loans and drastically high property prices, which prevent even middle-income earners from buying their first home. Historically, the high share of home ownership in Poland and other Central and Eastern European countries is a direct result of the privatization of state and enterprise-owned resources after 1989, when former tenants could purchase their units with a huge discount.The forecasts indicate that the market will have to adapt to new realities through the development of the institutional rental (PRS) sector. The growing popularity of living in rented quarters will also impact the construction sector, which may more frequently undertake projects dedicated to bulk investors instead of individual clients. „Najem dla części osób staje się świadomie wybieranym modelem życia, który daje elastyczność, brak długoterminowych zobowiązań i mniejsze ryzyko finansowe.” (Renting is becoming a consciously chosen lifestyle model for some people, offering flexibility, a lack of long-term commitments, and lower financial risk.) — Living 2040 Report