The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development has raised its forecast for Poland's GDP growth in 2026 to 3.7%, pointing to investments but warning of weaker foreign demand. Concurrently, Finance Minister Andrzej Domański appealed in the EU for lower energy prices for industry. Labor market data shows a 6% registered unemployment rate (934,000 people), while some analyses forecast a 30% drop in bank profits due to a higher CIT.

EBRD raised GDP forecast

The EBRD revised upward its forecast for Poland's GDP growth in 2026 to 3.7%, pointing to investments but noting growing external risks.

Warning about foreign demand

The development bank signaled that weaker demand from foreign markets could limit economic activity, especially in export sectors and processing industries.

Appeal for cheaper energy

Finance Minister Andrzej Domański argued in the EU that lowering energy prices is crucial for the competitiveness of European industry; some reports cited estimates of job losses.

Labor market and demographics

January data indicated a 6% registered unemployment rate and 934,000 people without work, while analyses drew attention to demographics and the rising average age of workers.

Banks: pressure on results

Commentators forecast that a higher CIT and lower interest rates could lower bank profits by about 30%, despite expectations for a revival in lending activity.

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has raised its forecast for GDP growth in Poland in 2026 to 3.7%. Press commentary was dominated by the justification that the pace is to be sustained by investments and improved activity in some sectors. At the same time, the EBRD noted that weaker foreign demand could remain a risk to economic activity, particularly affecting export-oriented industry. The thread of external threats was reinforced by analyses of growing competition from China and the "China shock" in Europe, with the thesis that Poland might be relatively less exposed due to diversification of production and sales markets.

„Musimy obniżyć ceny energii” (We must lower energy prices) — Andrzej Domański

3,7% — forecast for Poland's GDP growth

Since the 1990s, Poland has undergone a transformation from a planned to a market economy, based on privatization and an influx of investment. After accession to the European Union in 2004, the country accelerated income convergence with the West, benefiting from trade, funds, and integration of supply chains.

Concurrently, Finance Minister Andrzej Domański, referring to the condition of European industry, argued at the EU forum that lowering energy prices is a condition for regaining competitiveness; the minister cited an estimate of the loss of 100,000 jobs in the European chemical sector over the past four years. A mixed picture emerged in the domestic labor market: on one hand, January data indicated a 6% registered unemployment rate and 934,000 people without work, on the other – some commentaries spoke of a "cooling" demand for labor and demographic pressure, which is raising the average age of workers. In the financial sector, analyses examined the impact of the planned increase in the CIT rate for banks to 30% in 2026, which, coupled with potential interest rate cuts, could put pressure on financial results, although experts do not foresee such a drastic collapse in profits for the entire sector. A separate stream of publications concerned local content strategy and building the "Poland" brand on the wave of transformation, with emphasis on the participation of domestic firms in investments. Some media also featured a thread comparing Poland to Spain in terms of purchasing power parity; some such theses were of an editorial nature and not based on current IMF data.

„Poland has already overtaken Spain” (superbiz.se.pl) — IMF forecasts for 2025–2026 do not confirm Poland overtaking Spain in GDP per capita (PPP); Spain's advantage persists, and catching up is indicated rather around 2030.

Mentioned People

  • Andrzej Domański — Finance Minister, appealed in the EU for lower energy prices for industry.
  • Donald Tusk — Prime Minister, referenced in publications comparing the wealth levels of Poland and Spain.