Intelligence Crisis 2028: Controversial AI Report Shakes Stock Markets and Labor Market

Global stock markets came under strong pressure following the publication of a study by Citrini Research, which presented a catastrophic economic development scenario up to 2028. According to the authors, James van Geelen and Alap Shah, rapid automation will lead to an increase in US unemployment to 10.2%, primarily hitting so-called white-collar workers. The report suggests that a decline in incomes of the highest-earning professional groups will trigger a deflationary cascade, preventing loan servicing and leading to a crash comparable to 2008. This information caused an immediate sell-off in the software and financial services sectors, affecting companies such as American Express and ServiceNow. In response to the market panic, representatives of financial institutions and the government spoke out. Independent economists and market analysts criticized the report, pointing out that it violates basic economic principles by ignoring the historical correlation between productivity growth and job creation. A similar stance was taken by Citadel Securities, indicating that governments will likely respond with regulations and fiscal stimuli to cushion the effects of the technological transformation. Nevertheless, sentiment remains tense, as confirmed by the words of Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, who sees disturbing similarities between the current investment euphoria and the period preceding the financial crisis two decades ago. Historically, every wave of technological innovation, from the steam engine to personal computers, has raised fears of mass structural unemployment. However, in the longer term, these technologies have become the foundation of new industries, increasing the overall standard of living and employment.The situation on the stock markets was attempted to be stabilized by the startup Anthropic, announcing new partnerships with giants such as Thomson Reuters and Slack. The presentation of specific AI tools designed to support, not replace, workers in investment banking and HR brought a temporary rebound in the share prices of some tech companies. Simultaneously, investor attention is shifting to the upcoming financial report of the company Nvidia, which is seen as the ultimate test of the credibility of the ongoing AI technology boom. 10,2% — projected US unemployment rate according to the reportFrom a social perspective, fears of automation are becoming a reality. The Mercer Global Talent Trends report indicates that 40% of workers fear losing their jobs to AI, translating into a real decline in loyalty and professional burnout. Companies such as WiseTech Global are already announcing a reduction of 2000 positions, arguing that the era of manual code writing by programmers is coming to an end. The dynamics of these changes call into question the stability of leveraged loan portfolios, where UBS analysts predict, in the worst-case scenario, an increase in the default rate to 15%.