Troop casualties in Ukraine war surpass 2 million, CSIS study finds, as fresh drone attack hits Kyiv
A new CSIS study says the four-year war has killed or wounded more than 2 million Russian and Ukrainian soldiers, with Russia taking the heavier toll. Overnight, Kyiv came under a fresh wave of drone strikes.
The CSIS report
A study by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) estimates that more than two million Russian and Ukrainian troops have been killed or wounded in four years of war. The report, published on Wednesday, draws on U.S. and British government assessments because both Moscow and Kyiv shield their real casualty counts.
Russia bears the heaviest burden
Russia has suffered 1.4 million casualties, including 400,000 to 450,000 dead. That death toll is more than four times the total U.S. military fatalities in all conflicts since World War II, and over nine times the number of Soviet and Russian troops killed in all wars over the same period, according to the study.
Ukraine's military strain
Ukrainian forces have sustained 525,000 to 625,000 casualties, among them 125,000 to 150,000 killed. With Russian troops outnumbering Ukrainians roughly three to one, and around 400,000 Russian soldiers facing about 250,000 Ukrainian defenders on the front, the smaller Ukrainian army is bleeding a larger share of its forces. Russia replenishes its ranks through conscription and the enlistment of prisoners and debtors.
Slow, grinding advances
Russian territorial control contracted in the spring of 2026.
Russian daily advance rates remain glacial: about 50 meters near Kostiantynivka, 70 meters toward Pokrovsk, and 90 meters around Sloviansk.Russian forces lost more ground than they captured in both April and May, a net loss of roughly 400 square kilometers and their first monthly net losses since August 2024 -- yet another sign of Russia's military struggles.
- Kostiantynivka
- 50 m/day
- Pokrovsk
- 70 m/day
- Sloviansk
- 90 m/day
Elon Musk's Starlink intervention
A brief Ukrainian advantage came in February when Elon Musk unexpectedly barred Russian forces from accessing his Starlink satellite network, giving Kyiv a respite from drone attacks and greater freedom of movement. Still, Russia continues to absorb heavy daily casualties, estimated at roughly 1,000 per day in 2026, while recruitment brings in only about 27,000 new troops per month. The casualty ratio has reportedly widened to eight Russian losses for every one Ukrainian loss, driven by Ukraine's AI-enhanced drone warfare.
Recent battlefield timeline
- Russia invades Ukraine.
- Last monthly net territorial gain for Russia before spring 2026.
- Ukraine gains more ground than it loses for first month since 2023; Musk blocks Russian Starlink access.
- Russian forces lose net ~400 sq km in April and May, first monthly net losses since August 2024.
- CSIS reports over 2 million total troop casualties; overnight drone attack on Kyiv.
Fresh drone assault on Kyiv
As the study was made public, Russia launched a new wave of drone attacks on Kyiv overnight. Air defenses were activated across the capital, and explosions rocked the center. Timur Tkachenko, head of the Kyiv regional military administration, warned of a multi-phase attack with drones approaching from several directions.
The strike followed a warning from President Volodymyr Zelensky, who said from Dublin that he had information about an impending new Russian attack.Drones are reaching the capital from various directions and there is the threat of a multi-phase attack.
