Sudden Warming in Germany: End of Frost and Flood Threat in Bavaria

The German Meteorological Service (DWD) forecasts a sharp temperature rise in the second half of the week, heralding the arrival of meteorological spring. Warm air masses from the Sahara, moving through Spain and France, are expected to bring temperatures ranging from 18 to even 20 degrees Celsius to North Rhine-Westphalia and Baden-Württemberg. This change comes after a difficult start to the week, dominated by downpours, strong winds, and thawing, which particularly affected the southern and central regions of the country. Currently, the focus of emergency services is on Bavaria, where a first-level flood warning has been declared for the Isar River in Munich. While the situation in Franconia is gradually improving, higher alert levels remain in force in other parts of the state, including around Coburg and Cham. The rapid melting of the snowpack in the Alps, combined with precipitation of 40–60 liters per square meter, also increases the risk of avalanches in the high mountains. Meanwhile, in central Germany, including the Harz Mountains, despite rising water levels in the Bode and Ilse rivers, experts do not currently foresee alarm levels being exceeded. February in Central Europe has historically been a month of the greatest weather variability, where polar air masses clash with the growing influence of Atlantic circulation, often leading to so-called thaw floods. Despite optimistic forecasts for the coming days, weather forecasters warn of a phenomenon known as "Märzwinter" (March winter), which in the past has repeatedly brought sudden returns of frost after early spring warming.