US Mediates New Round of Negotiations on Western Sahara

The US administration has undertaken the organization of a new round of direct negotiations in the protracted conflict over Western Sahara. The talks, planned for late February in Washington, will bring together representatives of the Kingdom of Morocco and the Polisario Front. The initiative aims to break the years-long diplomatic deadlock and is part of the Joe Biden administration's increased efforts to stabilize the North African region.

Western Sahara, a former Spanish colony, has been a disputed territory since 1975. After Spain's withdrawal, Morocco occupied most of the area, sparking a conflict with the Polisario Front, which is militarily and politically supported by Algeria. In 1991, a ceasefire was agreed under UN auspices, and the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO) was established, with the goal of organizing a self-determination referendum. The referendum never took place due to disputes over voter eligibility criteria.The meeting in Washington will take place at a particular political moment, marked by the approaching presidential elections in the United States. It is precisely the potential return of Donald Trump to the White House, according to analysts, that is influencing the dynamics of the negotiations. During his first term, Trump explicitly supported Moroccan sovereignty over the disputed territory in exchange for the normalization of relations between Morocco and Israel. That decision, reversing decades of US policy of neutrality, put the Polisario Front in a difficult diplomatic position.

„Acorralado por el efecto Trump, el Polisario también quiere que se hable de „su plan” de semiautonomía.” (Cornered by the Trump effect, Polisario also wants its 'plan' for semi-autonomy to be discussed.) — Diplomatic sourceIn response to this paradigm shift, Polisario is preparing to present its own new plan for resolving the conflict in Washington. The proposal, referred to as a "semi-autonomy" or "broad self-governance" plan, would represent a certain departure from the previous demand for an immediate and full independence referendum. This is seen as a tactical move aimed at regaining the initiative and securing its position ahead of a potential renewed hardening of the US stance.

Perspektywy mediów: In left-wing Spanish media, the emphasis is on the right of the Sahrawi people to self-determination and criticism of US support for Morocco as a violation of UN resolutions. Conservative and pro-Western media highlight the role of the US as a stabilizer and realpolitik, including the strategic partnership with Morocco on security and counter-terrorism.The fundamental divergence of positions, however, remains unchanged. The government in Rabat is pushing its 2007 autonomy plan, which grants the region broad self-governing powers but under ultimate Moroccan sovereignty. Polisario and Algeria reject this model, considering it insufficient, and continue to demand the right to self-determination, guaranteed by international law. The new round of talks aims to explore whether, under the current circumstances, even a temporary convergence of these positions is possible. The success of American mediation will depend on the ability to develop a formula that at least partially satisfies both sides and prevents an escalation of tensions in the Maghreb region.