Breakthrough in Negotiations: Moscow Ready to Accept US Security Guarantees

The last 24 hours have brought dynamic, yet contradictory signals regarding the prospects for ending the conflict in Ukraine. The most important information was provided by the head of Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR), Kyrylo Budanov, according to whom the Russian Federation has expressed readiness to accept the plan of security guarantees proposed by the United States. This decision, if formalized, could form the foundation for a lasting ceasefire, which Donald Trump mentioned in recent statements following his conversation with Vladimir Putin. However, this optimism is tempered by Moscow's hard territorial demands. Russian diplomacy, according to Bloomberg reports, is putting the matter on a knife's edge. The Kremlin is threatening to completely sever negotiation contacts if the Ukrainian side does not recognize Russian annexations and renounce its rights to the Donbas. Simultaneously, Russia is pushing to change the venue for peace talks from neutral Switzerland to the United Arab Emirates, which is interpreted as an attempt to escape Western influence on the mediation process. In Kyiv itself, there is a belief that the key to peace lies in Washington, which Zelenskyy directly articulated during a conversation with the new Prime Minister of the Netherlands. Cooperation with The Hague is intensifying particularly in the area of drone technology, which is meant to be a response to Russia's growing dependence on equipment from North Korea. North Korean support for Russia has become an element of a strategic shift in the balance of power, surpassing the significance of supplies from Iran. Since 2024, Pyongyang has supplied millions of artillery shells and short-range missiles, enabling the Kremlin to wage a war of attrition.The humanitarian and economic situation in Ukraine remains difficult despite the end of the coldest phase of winter. Missile attacks on civilian infrastructure, including factories of international corporations in Kharkiv, are generating losses counted in millions of euros. Ukrainian commanders are sounding the alarm about critical shortages of missiles for air defense systems, forcing the country to accelerate its own armament projects. In the shadow of high politics, small diplomatic successes are occurring locally – a short-term, local ceasefire was announced around the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant to enable necessary repairs to installations damaged by shelling. However, experts, including General Roman Polko, warn that Donald Trump's rhetoric may unintentionally strengthen Putin's position, giving him room to impose peace terms from a position of strength. „Russia has accepted the US security guarantees for Ukraine.” — Kyrylo Budanov