Lithuanian intelligence VSD and military counterintelligence AOTD have published a report indicating that Russia is preparing for a prolonged confrontation with the West. According to the services' findings, Moscow possesses resources allowing it to continue aggression against Ukraine at the current pace for at least several years. Simultaneously, the Kremlin is intensively building up its military potential in the Baltic Sea region and along NATO borders, including directly at the border with Lithuania.
Resources for war in Ukraine
Russia possesses sufficient human and technical resources to fight in Ukraine for several more years.
Build-up of forces near NATO
Moscow is increasing troop numbers near its western border, strengthening offensive capabilities.
Resilience to sanctions
Despite economic restrictions, the Russian arms industry receives enormous funds for production.
The Russian Federation is intensifying preparations for a potential conflict with Western countries, as confirmed by the latest analyses from Lithuanian special services. The report jointly prepared by VSD and AOTD indicates that Moscow not only shows no willingness to de-escalate in Ukraine but treats this conflict as part of a broader, long-term strategy. The services assess that Russia possesses the financial, human, and technical resources to conduct warfare at the current pace for at least several years.
Parallel to the fighting on the Ukrainian front, the Kremlin is implementing extensive military reforms aimed at strengthening offensive capabilities along its western border. The concentration of forces in the Baltic Sea region and directly at Lithuania's borders is of particular concern. According to Lithuanian analysts, Russia is capable of reorganizing its units and redirecting them to other strategic directions shortly after a potential end to active fighting in Ukraine. kilka lat — time horizon for Russian readiness for a new war
Since 2022, NATO's eastern flank states, including Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, have regularly warned that Russia's ability to rebuild its army could occur faster than earlier forecasts by Western allies had assumed. The key factor enabling this build-up is the shift of the Russian economy to a war footing. Despite imposed sanctions, the Russian state is effectively redirecting funds to the arms industry, allowing for continuous production and modernization of equipment.
Russian potential according to Lithuanian services: War in Ukraine: current pace of operations for at least several years → no signs of rapid de-escalation; Forces near NATO borders: ongoing strengthening → possible rapid reorganization after the war in Ukraine
The conclusions drawn from the document clearly indicate that confrontation with NATO remains a strategic priority for Moscow. Although media reports mention specific dates in the report, the publicly available fragments focus on a general timeframe of the next few years. The Lithuanian services emphasize that the process of strengthening Russia's armed forces is continuous, and the Kremlin's determination to rebuild its influence in the region is not weakening despite the losses incurred in Ukraine.