Polling earthquake in Poland: PiS overtakes KO. Orbán accuses Ukraine ahead of elections

The latest party poll published on March 13, 2026, indicates a significant change on the Polish political scene, where Law and Justice (PiS) has overtaken the Civic Coalition in the popularity ranking. The formation led by Jarosław Kaczyński recorded an increase in support, which media are calling a polling earthquake. Despite returning to the top position, PiS currently does not have the support needed to govern alone in the Sejm. The same situation applies to the party of Prime Minister Donald Tusk, which also could not count on obtaining a parliamentary majority on its own. These results force both main political forces to seek potential coalition partners to form a stable government.

A key role in the new balance of power is played by Confederation, which has strengthened its position as the third political force in the country. Its support becomes essential for each of the dominant parties, making this group the main player in the process of forming a future majority. At the same time, public opinion polls indicate a serious crisis for the current partners of the Civic Coalition. Both Third Way and The Left are recording declines, which in some rankings push them below the statutory electoral threshold. Such a scenario would mean a complete restructuring of the current ruling coalition and the loss of parliamentary backing for the current head of government.

The political situation is also intensifying in Hungary, where one month before elections scheduled for April 2026, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán faces the most serious threat to his power in years. The head of government in Budapest publicly accused Ukraine of financing the main opposition party, which in polls is emerging as the favorite in the upcoming vote. The TISZA party has become a real alternative to Fidesz, which has dominated for a decade, prompting the ruling camp to radicalize rhetoric targeting the neighboring country. Orbán is trying to portray the opposition as a formation serving the interests of foreign centers, aiming to discredit political opponents in the eyes of the Hungarian electorate.

„Ucrania financia al partido de la oposición favorito para las elecciones en Hungría” (Ukraine is financing the opposition party favored to win the elections in Hungary) — Viktor Orbán via ABC

Parliamentary elections in Hungary are held every four years under a mixed system. The Fidesz party under the leadership of Viktor Orbán has held power continuously since 2010, obtaining a parliamentary majority in subsequent votes. The last elections in 2022 ended with the fourth consecutive victory for the Fidesz-KDNP coalition, which at that time defeated a broad bloc of united opposition.

Upcoming political events: April 2026 — Parliamentary elections in Hungary