United Surveys poll: Civic Coalition leads, but ruling coalition loses parliamentary majority

The Civic Coalition takes first place in the latest United Surveys party poll from March 13, 2026, ahead of Law and Justice. Despite its leading position, the grouping led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk does not have an independent majority of seats, forcing it to continue cooperation with coalition partners. Law and Justice, in second place in the ranking, recorded a clear increase in support in the survey. United Surveys indicates that in the new parliamentary arrangement, representatives of five electoral committees would sit in the benches on Wiejska Street.

According to the survey results, Confederation, Third Way, and The Left would also cross the electoral threshold. The political situation remains deadlocked, however, as neither the current ruling camp, consisting of the Civic Coalition, Third Way, and The Left, nor the opposition Law and Justice have a sufficient number of seats to govern independently. The Sejm of the 10th term, elected in the 2023 elections, is characterized by the rotational holding of key positions in the presidium. According to earlier coalition agreements, a change in the position of Marshal of the Sejm occurred in 2025 – Szymon Hołownia was replaced by Włodzimierz Czarzasty. Currently, Szymon Hołownia serves as Deputy Marshal, reflecting the new power structure in parliament after half of the term.

Włodzimierz Czarzasty has been serving as Marshal of the Sejm since 2025, while Szymon Hołownia, after stepping down from that role, assumed the position of Deputy Marshal. On the opposition side, Przemysław Czarnek plays a significant role, having served as Vice-President of Law and Justice since 2025. The rise in PiS's ratings in the March survey coincides with the intensification of the party's activities in the regions. At the same time, the current balance of power indicates the need to seek broad agreements when attempting to pass key legislation, as none of the main forces dominates the others in a way that provides full legislative freedom.

Confederation, despite maintaining third place in the party popularity ranking, recorded the largest drop in support compared to previous surveys. The leaders of this grouping remain Sławomir Mentzen and Krzysztof Bosak. Sławomir Mentzen, who ran as a candidate in the 2025 presidential election, remains one of the key figures of the formation, but current polling trends indicate a loss of some of its electorate. Order of groupings in the United Surveys poll (13.03.2026): 1. Koalicja Obywatelska (Poll leader); 2. Prawo i Sprawiedliwość (Clear increase in support); 3. Konfederacja (Drop in support); 4. Trzecia Droga (In the Sejm); 5. Lewica (In the Sejm)