The latest IBRiS poll for Onet shows Koalicja Obywatelska leading with 31.8% support, while Prawo i Sprawiedliwość faces a decline to 24.2% following the nomination of Przemysław Czarnek as their prime ministerial candidate.
KO Dominance
Koalicja Obywatelska leads the poll with 31.8% support, maintaining its position as the primary political force in Poland.
PiS Decline
Support for Prawo i Sprawiedliwość fell by 3.1 percentage points to 24.2% despite naming Przemysław Czarnek as their candidate for Prime Minister.
Coalition Challenges
Several current government partners, including PSL and Polska 2050, fell below the 5% electoral threshold, complicating future majority prospects.
Rise of Konfederacja
Konfederacja secured third place with 14.2% support, indicating a shift toward right-wing formations.
Koalicja Obywatelska leads the latest party preference poll with 31.8 percent support, while Prawo i Sprawiedliwość holds second place with 24.2 percent. The survey, conducted by the IBRiS institute for Onet and published on March 13, 2026, placed Konfederacja in third position with 14.2 percent of the intended vote. These results follow the recent announcement by Prawo i Sprawiedliwość (PiS) naming Przemysław Czarnek as the party's official candidate for Prime Minister. The data suggests a significant gap between the two largest political forces, though the opposition maintains a consolidated base. Koalicja Obywatelska was originally established as an electoral coalition on March 7, 2018, before being formally transformed into a single political party on October 25, 2025. The group currently serves as the primary component of the governing coalition that took office in late 2023. Donald Tusk serves as both the chairman of the party and the Prime Minister of Poland, while Karol Nawrocki holds the office of President of Poland since 2025.
Several other political entities managed to exceed the 5 percent electoral threshold required to enter the parliament. Konfederacja Korony Polskiej obtained 8 percent support, while Nowa Lewica followed with 6.9 percent. However, several established groups currently fall short of the threshold, including the Polish People's Party (PSL) at 4.6 percent, Partia Razem at 2.1 percent, and Polska 2050, which recorded 0.9 percent support. This distribution of votes indicates a potential shift in the parliamentary landscape, as some current coalition partners struggle to maintain their standing.
A simulation of the seat distribution based on these polling figures indicates that the current ruling coalition would secure 201 seats in the Sejm. This total falls short of the 231 seats required for a majority in the 460-member chamber, suggesting that forming a government would require broader cooperation or new alliances. The poll reflects the political climate following the PiS leadership's decision to promote Przemysław Czarnek, a move that appears to have solidified the party's core support but has not yet allowed it to overtake the frontrunner. IBRiS Poll Results - March 13, 2026: . ; . ; . ; . ; . ; . ; . ; .