War in Iran: US and Israeli Intelligence Dampen Hopes for Regime's Swift Collapse

The war by the United States and Israel against Iran has entered its second week, with the latest intelligence reports indicating that despite the killing of Ali Khamenei, the system of government in Tehran shows no signs of imminent collapse. US intelligence services in reports from March 11, 2026, assessed that the Iranian state apparatus remains largely intact, and intense bombing has not led to the destabilization of power structures. Similar skepticism is expressed by officials in Tel Aviv, who warn against excessive optimism regarding the effects of the military operation. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly admitted that there is no guarantee of regime change in Tehran after the end of hostilities. Ali Khamenei held power from 1989, when he succeeded the founder of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Khomeini. For decades, he built a system based on strict clerical control over the military and economy, making him one of the longest-ruling leaders in the Middle East. Mojtaba Khamenei had long been considered a grey eminence and potential successor, despite lacking official state functions before March 2026.

Ali Khamenei was killed on February 28, 2026, as a result of US-Israeli strikes on a government complex. His son, Mojtaba Khamenei, was appointed as the third Supreme Leader of Iran in early March. In his first public statement, issued on March 12, 2026, Mojtaba Khamenei announced the continuation of the war and the maintenance of the blockade of the strategic Strait of Hormuz. The new leader, who lost his wife and son in the attack on his father's residence, called on the nation to resist the intervention, cutting off speculation about the possibility of a quick ceasefire. „There is no guarantee of Iran regime change after the war” — Benjamin Netanyahu via Bloomberg Business

Israeli intelligence officers described the vision of an immediate overthrow of the clerical rule as magical thinking. This assessment is shared by Iranian dissidents, who emphasize that airstrikes alone are not enough to remove the entrenched religious elite. According to media reports, Iranian society remains deeply divided between hope for change and fear of the consequences of the ongoing conflict. Security chief Ali Larijani accused the US and Israel of trying to break the country's territorial unity and plunder its resources, which is meant to consolidate Iranians around the new authority. „el cambio de régimen en Irán es un pensamiento mágico” (regime change in Iran is magical thinking) — Israeli intelligence representatives via eldiario.es

The conflict, lasting nearly fourteen days, is paralyzing global trade routes due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the death of the long-time leader, Iran's command structures demonstrate an ability to adapt under wartime conditions, and the government shows no signs of collapse. Analysts point out that the lack of a clear political plan from the coalition could lead to a prolonged military stalemate without achieving the goal of lasting political change. The humanitarian situation in the region is deteriorating, while both sides declare readiness for further escalation of military action. Escalation of the Conflict in Iran (2026): February 28 — Assassination of Ali Khamenei; March — Succession in Tehran; March 11 — US Intelligence Report; March 12 — Mojtaba's Statement