JD Vance Dominates 2026 CPAC Straw Poll as Marco Rubio Surges in 2028 Succession Race

Vice President JD Vance won the 2026 CPAC straw poll for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, capturing 53% of votes cast by nearly 1,600 attendees at the conference held in Grapevine, Texas. Secretary of State Marco Rubio finished second with 35%, a dramatic rise from the 3% he received at the same poll a year earlier. No other potential candidate exceeded 2% of the vote. The results confirmed Vance as the leading figure among the party's conservative base, while Rubio's surge signaled a tightening race for the post-Trump Republican future. President Donald Trump, serving his second term, is constitutionally barred from running again in 2028.

JD Vance: 53, Marco Rubio: 35, All others: 2

CPAC has been held annually since 1974 and is hosted by the American Conservative Union. Its straw poll has not endorsed anyone other than Donald Trump since 2016, the year he first ran for office — that year, Senator Ted Cruz won the poll, while the year prior it was won by Senator Rand Paul. In 2021, 2022, and 2023, Trump dominated the poll, and by 2024 he was drawing more than 90% of the vote. At last year's CPAC gathering in Maryland, Vance led with 61%, followed by former Trump adviser Steve Bannon with 12% and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis with 7%.

Rubio's Iran hawkishness fuels a 32-point surge Rubio's rise from 3% to 35% in a single year has been attributed across multiple reports to his central role in the Trump administration's foreign policy, including the ongoing military operation in Iran and earlier operations involving Venezuela. Rubio serves simultaneously as Secretary of State and acting National Security Advisor, giving him an unusually prominent profile during the Iran conflict. The war, now in its fifth week, centers on U.S. demands that Iran dismantle its nuclear and ballistic missile programs and allow oil traffic to pass freely through the Strait of Hormuz. Some conference participants floated the idea of a Vance-Rubio joint ticket for 2028, a strategy aimed at uniting the party's anti-interventionist and hawkish wings. Rubio's trajectory stands in sharp contrast to DeSantis, who tied Donald Trump Jr. at just 2% in Saturday's poll, a steep fall from the 7% he received at last year's gathering.

CPAC Straw Poll — Rubio vs. Vance, 2025 vs. 2026: JD Vance (before: 61% (2025), after: 53% (2026)); Marco Rubio (before: 3% (2025), after: 35% (2026)); Ron DeSantis (before: 7% (2025), after: 2% (2026))

Trump's approval hits new low as Iran war drags on The CPAC poll arrives at a difficult moment for Trump, whose approval rating fell to 36% in a Reuters/Ipsos survey completed last week — the lowest point since he returned to the White House. Rising fuel prices linked to the Iran conflict and broad public disapproval of the military operation were cited as contributing factors. Trump has privately been asking allies and advisers "JD or Marco?" regarding the succession question, according to two people familiar with his views cited by Reuters. Vance has taken a cautious public posture on the Iran war, reflecting his long-standing skepticism of U.S. military entanglements, while Rubio has aligned himself closely with Trump's hawkish approach and served as one of its most vocal defenders. Trump has acknowledged the two men hold "philosophical differences" on the conflict. Some Republicans told Reuters they see signs of Trump leaning toward Rubio, though the White House rejected that characterization. „No amount of crazed media speculation about Vice President Vance and Secretary Rubio will deter this administration's mission of fighting for the American people” — Steven Cheung via Reuters 36% (approval rating) — Trump job approval, Reuters/Ipsos poll, March 2026

Greene's exit from Congress reflects deepening MAGA fractures The CPAC gathering also highlighted widening divisions within the broader MAGA movement. Marjorie Taylor Greene, once one of Trump's most prominent congressional allies, resigned from Congress in early 2026 after a public falling-out with Trump. According to reporting cited at the conference and by The Guardian, Greene pointed to the release of the Epstein files and U.S. military involvement in the Middle East as key factors in her break from the movement. A special election runoff is underway to determine her replacement in Georgia's 14th congressional district. Vance, meanwhile, has been working to consolidate his political standing, conducting a fundraising tour through Texas and Tennessee this month ahead of November's midterm elections. The CPAC poll, while not a reliable predictor of the eventual nominee, underscored that the contest for the Republican Party's future is already being shaped by the Iran war, economic pressures, and the question of which figure can most credibly claim Trump's legacy.