Slovenia Election: PM Robert Golob's Liberals Hold Narrow Lead Over Janez Janša

Exit polls released immediately after polling stations closed in Slovenia on Sunday showed incumbent Prime Minister Robert Golob's liberal Freedom Movement leading with 29.9 percent of the vote, narrowly ahead of former Prime Minister Janez Janša's conservative Slovenian Democratic Party at 27.5 percent. The poll, conducted by the institute Mediana for private broadcaster POP TV, showed Golob's current governing coalition — comprising the Freedom Movement, the Social Democrats, and the Left — projected to win only 42 of the 90 seats in the Državni zbor, falling well short of the 46-seat majority needed to govern. Despite leading in the popular vote, Golob faces a difficult path to forming a stable government without support from smaller parties. The exit poll result marked a reversal from weeks of polling that had shown Janša's SDS in the lead.

Janša rules out forming government if results hold Janša, 67, who had repeatedly stated during the campaign that he was seeking a comfortable majority, reacted swiftly to the projections by signaling he would not attempt to form a government if the exit poll figures were confirmed. The veteran politician, who has served as prime minister three times — from 2004 to 2008, from 2012 to 2013, and from 2020 to 2022 — ran a campaign centered on a return to what he described as "Slovenian values," including the "traditional family," and promised to cut public funding to certain NGOs. „"Whoever wants change will probably have to wait for the final results, just like us, and then we will analyze the situation."” (Those who want change will have to wait for the final results, just like us, and then we will analyze the situation.) — Janez Janša via Courrier international Janša's close ties to U.S. President Donald Trump and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán drew significant attention during the campaign, and analysts noted that the ongoing U.S.-Israeli war on Iran placed his alliance with Trump in an uncomfortable spotlight. According to Ali Zerdin, head of the Sunday supplement of the newspaper Delo, the war in Iran offered "a wide space for criticism" to left-wing parties, while Janša's proximity to Trump forced him to stay in the background during the final weeks of campaigning.

Freedom Movement (GS): 29.9, Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS): 27.5

Black Cube scandal and Gaza policy shadowed the final campaign days The final stretch of the campaign was dominated by the so-called Black Cube affair, named after an Israeli intelligence company suspected of being behind the online publication of hidden-camera videos suggesting acts of corruption within the Golob government. Janša acknowledged that he met with a representative of Black Cube but denied any involvement in the publication of the videos. The scandal weakened Janša's campaign after weeks in which the SDS had led in opinion polls. Under Golob's mandate, which began in 2022, Slovenia became one of the few European Union member states to describe the war in Gaza as a "genocide," a position that drew a sharp response from Israel. According to Delo journalist Uros Esih, as cited by Libertatea, Israel would have every interest in seeing "Slovenia's foreign policy make a 180-degree change." Golob, 59, also made up ground in the final weeks through popular measures including increases in retirement pensions and a mandatory Christmas bonus, according to Courrier international. „"The Slovenian citizen must come first, not Palestine, not illegal migrants."” — Janez Janša via Libertatea

Coalition arithmetic leaves both blocs short of a majority Slovenia has been a member of the European Union since 2004 and emerged as an independent state from the former Yugoslavia. Golob, then a political novice, won a crushing victory in the 2022 elections after Janša's third term was marked by clashes with the EU, attempts to restrict critical media, and a handling of the COVID-19 pandemic that brought tens of thousands of people into the streets. During his current term, Golob legalized marriage and adoption for same-sex couples in a country of approximately 2.1 million inhabitants. With the Freedom Movement projected at 30 parliamentary seats and the SDS at 27, the result of smaller parties on both the left and right will prove decisive in determining which bloc can assemble a governing majority. Golob's current coalition partners — the Social Democrats and the Left — are projected to contribute only enough seats to bring the center-left bloc to 42 in total, leaving it eight seats short of a majority. Analysts noted that the Freedom Movement's result fell far short of the 40 seats Golob's party won in the 2022 elections, reflecting widespread voter dissatisfaction with the performance of public services, particularly in the health sector. A return of Janša to government would, according to analysts cited by Publico, likely align Slovenia more closely with Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic within the EU, though both Janša and Golob have expressed strong support for Ukraine in its war with Russia. 42 (seats) — projected seats for Golob's coalition out of 90 Final official results were expected later Sunday evening, with the full picture of potential coalition configurations remaining unclear as of the close of polls.