Ryanair CEO Warns of Summer Flight Cancellations Due to Middle East Fuel Shortages

Ryanair Group CEO Michael O'Leary warned on Wednesday that jet fuel supplies to Europe could face disruption from as early as May 2026, with up to 25% of the airline's fuel requirements potentially at risk through May and June if the conflict in the Middle East continues and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. O'Leary, speaking at a press conference in London and separately to Sky News, said the Irish carrier was holding daily calls with all of its fuel suppliers across Europe to assess the situation, with those suppliers indicating supply would remain stable only until the end of May. He said the airline had not yet cancelled any flights and that its current fuel supply was secure, but warned that if the conflict extended into May, the consequences for summer travel would be difficult to predict. Ryanair, Europe's largest airline by passenger numbers, operates 650 aircraft across 94 airports and employs more than 26,000 people worldwide. The airline has hedged approximately 80% of its fuel requirements for the fiscal year to March 2027 at a crude oil price of $67 per barrel, providing a partial buffer against price volatility, but O'Leary acknowledged the airline was paying around $150 to $170 per barrel for the remaining unhedged 20%.

UK singled out as most exposed European market O'Leary identified the United Kingdom as the European market most vulnerable to potential jet fuel shortages, citing its heavy reliance on Kuwaiti oil. Britain sourced at least half of its jet fuel from the Middle East in recent months, after turning away from Russian supplies following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and amid a decline in domestic refining capacity. UK demand for jet fuel reached 12 million tonnes in 2025, most of which was imported, with Kuwait an especially large supplier. The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero said jet fuel shipments were continuing to arrive in the UK from countries including India, the United States and the Netherlands, but did not address longer-term supply risks. O'Leary said there could be a surplus of jet fuel in the Middle East itself, but the challenge was physically shipping it to Europe given the disruption to transit routes.

„There could be a surplus of jet A-1 fuel in the Middle East, but you have still got to ship it to Europe and we don't know when or how that happens.” — Michael O'Leary via The Guardian

The US-Israel war on Iran, known as Operation Epic Fury, began on February 28, 2026, and resulted in the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping. The closure has disrupted oil and refined fuel flows that normally account for roughly 20% of the world's traded jet fuel supply, according to reporting in the Irish Times. Wholesale jet fuel prices have roughly doubled since the start of the war, reaching approximately $195 per barrel as of late March 2026, according to data cited by the International Air Transport Association. Airlines in Asia and the Pacific, including Cathay Pacific, Qantas, AirAsia, SAS and Air New Zealand, have already implemented temporary or permanent fuel surcharges in response to the price surge.

IATA and IEA warn Europe faces tightening supply in weeks The IATA estimated that between 25% and 30% of Europe's jet fuel demand originates from the Persian Gulf, placing the continent among the most exposed regions to the impact of the conflict on supply. IATA Director General Willie Walsh, whose organisation represents 85% of the world's airlines, said carriers in some regions were already passing on higher fuel costs to passengers and that European and Irish travellers had only "a little bit more time" because of hedging arrangements. Walsh said airlines would ultimately have no choice but to raise fares, adding: "It's happening now." IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol warned separately on Wednesday that the disruption of oil supplies from the Middle East would intensify in April and begin to affect the European economy, with the deficit of jet fuel and diesel already hitting Asian markets and set to reach Europe in April or May. Lufthansa CEO Carsten Spohr said his airline was also preparing for a possible fuel deficit outside Europe, noting early warning signs in Asia, and confirmed in an internal memo that the German carrier was developing crisis scenarios including the cancellation of unprofitable routes and the early retirement of older aircraft.

25-30% (share of European jet fuel demand) — European jet fuel sourced from Persian Gulf, per IATA

Hedged price (80% of supply): 67, Unhedged April price: 170, Market average last week: 195

Trump's ceasefire comments briefly ease oil market pressure European airline stocks rose on Wednesday after US President Donald Trump stated that the United States could end military attacks on Iran within two to three weeks. Ryanair shares advanced 4.1% on the day, reflecting investor relief at the prospect of a shorter conflict. Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, slipped below $100 per barrel following Trump's remarks, falling to $98.83 at one point — its lowest level in a week, according to The Guardian. O'Leary said Ryanair did not yet see a significant impact on ticket prices from the conflict and still expected fares to rise by 3% to 4% year-on-year in the April-to-June period, with passenger traffic growth of approximately 5% over the same period. He said the airline's most profitable flying season runs from June to September and that Ryanair could not afford to reduce routes, but that any decision on flight cancellations would be taken on a weekly basis depending on fuel availability at specific airports.

„If the war finishes and the Straits of Hormuz reopens by the middle or end of April, then there's no risk to supply.” — Michael O'Leary via Reuters

Separately, O'Leary renewed calls for the UK government to abolish Air Passenger Duty, which increased on Wednesday, adding £2 to the cost of a short-haul economy flight. He argued the hike made UK air travel less competitive compared with countries such as Sweden, Hungary, Slovakia and parts of Italy, where governments had been removing environmental taxes. Industry groups also wrote to the European Commission warning that airlines faced a shortage of sustainable aviation fuel unless Brussels reversed a decision to impose anti-dumping duties on US imports, a separate pressure compounding the broader jet fuel crisis.