Polish Poll Shows Tight Race Between Ruling Coalition and Opposition

The Civic Coalition leads the latest parliamentary poll with 31.8 percent of support, narrowly edging out Law and Justice which secured 31.2 percent. The survey, conducted by Opinia24 for "Fakty" TVN and TVN24 in March 2026, indicates a highly competitive political landscape with only a 0.6 percentage point difference between the two largest parties. This result suggests a significant tightening of the race compared to previous surveys where the lead was more pronounced. Prime Minister Donald Tusk continues to lead the Civic Coalition, which transitioned from a coalition into a unified political party in October 2025. The narrow margin highlights a potential shift in voter sentiment as the opposition Law and Justice party closes the gap. 0.6 (percentage points) — margin between KO and PiS

Confederation maintains its position as the third-largest political force in the country, garnering 13.1 percent of the vote in the latest study. The Third Way followed with 9.2 percent support, while The Left reached 8.4 percent. All five major political groups comfortably cross the electoral threshold required to enter the Sejm. The strong performance of Confederation suggests a stable base of support for the right-wing alliance. Meanwhile, the junior partners in the current government coalition, the Third Way and The Left, combined for 17.6 percent of the total support. This distribution of votes indicates that while the ruling bloc remains ahead in aggregate, the individual party standings are shifting. KO: 31.8, PiS: 31.2, Confederation: 13.1, Third Way: 9.2, The Left: 8.4

The current political environment is defined by the cohabitation between the government and President Karol Nawrocki, who has held office since August 2025. This institutional setup influences the strategic decisions of both the ruling party and the opposition as they prepare for future legislative challenges. Poland's political landscape underwent a significant shift in 2025 following the presidential election that saw Karol Nawrocki succeed the previous administration on August 6. On October 25, 2025, the Civic Coalition formally registered as a single political party to streamline its internal structure. The current government, led by Donald Tusk, has been in power since late 2023. Recent polling trends in early 2026 have shown fluctuating leads for the major parties, reflecting a polarized electorate. The poll results suggest that the ruling coalition may face difficulties maintaining a stable majority without seeking broader alliances if these numbers were reflected in an actual election. [{"position": 1, "name": "Koalicja Obywatelska", "info": "Government", "score": "31.8%"}, {"position": 2, "name": "Prawo i Sprawiedliwość", "info": "Opposition", "score": "31.2%"}, {"position": 3, "name": "Konfederacja", "info": "Opposition", "score": "13.1%"}, {"position": 4, "name": "Trzecia Droga", "info": "Government", "score": "9.2%"}, {"position": 5, "name": "Lewica", "info": "Government", "score": "8.4%"}]