Civic Coalition and Law and Justice Surge as Polarization Deepens in Poland

A new IBRiS poll conducted for the daily Rzeczpospolita on March 27-28, 2026, shows Civic Coalition leading with 32.4 percent support, while Law and Justice recorded the largest single gain of any party, rising 2.4 percentage points to 24.5 percent. The survey, carried out using the CATI method on a sample of 1,067 respondents, captures the first major shift in Polish party standings since two significant political decisions: the launch of the government's fuel price reduction program and Law and Justice's naming of Przemysław Czarnek as its candidate for prime minister. Konfederacja held third place with 13.4 percent, while the most notable reshuffle occurred further down the rankings, where the Left climbed to fourth place at 7.9 percent, overtaking Grzegorz Braun's Confederation of the Polish Crown, which fell to fifth at 7.5 percent. The results suggest that polarization between the two dominant blocs continues to drive voter behavior heading into the next parliamentary cycle.

Civic Coalition (KO): 32.4, Law and Justice (PiS): 24.5, Konfederacja: 13.4, The Left: 7.9, Confederation of the Polish Crown: 7.5, Razem: 2.9, PSL: 4.5, Polska 2050: 1.8

Fuel price program credited with boosting coalition ratings All four parties in the ruling coalition recorded gains compared to the previous IBRiS survey conducted at the end of February, with analysts pointing to the CPN program as a key driver. Civic Coalition's support rose by 2.3 percentage points to reach 32.4 percent, its strongest showing in recent polling. The Left advanced by 1.1 percentage points to 7.9 percent, moving into fourth place for the first time in recent surveys. PSL improved from 4.2 percent to 4.5 percent, remaining below the electoral threshold but narrowing the gap. Polska 2050 edged up from 1.5 percent to 1.8 percent, though Rzeczpospolita noted that its entire result falls within the margin of statistical error. Włodzimierz Czarzasty, who serves as Marshal of the Sejm, was credited by Rzeczpospolita with contributing to the Left's rise through his public clashes with President Karol Nawrocki and his positioning as a champion of faster fuel price reductions.

Czarnek candidacy seen as calculated bid for Braun voters Law and Justice posted the largest gain of any party in the survey, rising 2.4 percentage points to 24.5 percent, in what Rzeczpospolita described as a "Czarnek effect." The poll was conducted after Law and Justice formally named Przemysław Czarnek, a legal scholar and former minister of education and science, as its candidate for prime minister. Multiple sources cited the move as a deliberate strategy to recapture voters who had drifted toward Grzegorz Braun's Confederation of the Polish Crown. The data appears to support that interpretation: the Confederation of the Polish Crown lost 1.7 percentage points, falling from a previous fourth-place position to fifth at 7.5 percent. Political scientist Antoni Dudek, commenting on whether the trend could continue, offered a cautious assessment. „Everything depends on what ideas Czarnek will have and how originally he will score points against the government. He must be more radical than Braun.” — Antoni Dudek via Do Rzeczy Konfederacja, the separate libertarian-nationalist grouping, also slipped slightly, losing 0.4 percentage points to settle at 13.4 percent, though it retained third place comfortably.

Declared turnout at 53.7 percent, with one in ten still undecided The poll also measured hypothetical electoral participation, finding that 53.7 percent of respondents said they would vote if parliamentary elections were held the following Sunday. Of that figure, 43.6 percent said "definitely yes" and 10.1 percent said "rather yes," according to the survey data reported by Wprost. On the other side, 41.8 percent declared they would not participate, including 25.6 percent who were certain of abstaining and 16.2 percent leaning toward non-participation. 5.1 (percent) — share of respondents undecided on voting intention The Razem party recorded a decline, falling from 3.4 percent to 2.9 percent, placing it below the electoral threshold. Rzeczpospolita noted that without Konfederacja, forming a majority government would be mathematically impossible under the current polling configuration, as the combined support of the four coalition parties would fall short of a parliamentary majority even with the Left included.

Poland's parliamentary elections are not due until 2027, but party polling has taken on heightened significance following the presidential election of August 2025, which brought Karol Nawrocki to the presidency. The governing coalition, formed after the October 2023 parliamentary elections, consists of Civic Coalition, the Left, PSL, and Polska 2050. Law and Justice, which governed Poland from 2015 to 2023, has remained the largest opposition party. Grzegorz Braun, a member of the European Parliament, leads the Confederation of the Polish Crown as a separate entity from Konfederacja, the broader libertarian-nationalist alliance.