The American Van Allen Probe A spacecraft will enter Earth's atmosphere on Tuesday. NASA assures that the risk to people is minimal, although the deorbiting is uncontrolled.

Uncontrolled deorbiting

The 600 kg probe will make an uncontrolled atmospheric entry on March 10, 2026, after running out of fuel.

Minimal risk to population

NASA estimates the probability of a fragment hitting a person at 1 in 2500; most of the object will burn up during descent.

Scientific legacy

The mission, active since 2012, enabled crucial research on Earth's radiation belts and space weather.

The American Van Allen Probe A spacecraft will enter Earth's atmosphere on Tuesday, March 10, 2026, ending its nearly fourteen-year research mission. The satellite, weighing about 600 kilograms (1300 pounds), will make an uncontrolled entry into the dense layers of gases surrounding our planet, which has drawn the interest of space agencies worldwide. NASA, however, reassures the public, indicating that the risk to civilians is extremely low, as most of the structure will burn up completely due to atmospheric friction. Experts predict that only a few, most resilient fragments of the device may survive this phase and fall into the ocean or onto uninhabited areas. The entire deorbiting process is being monitored by orbital object tracking systems, although the exact point of impact remains difficult to determine precisely due to the nature of the phenomenon. The probe was launched into space in 2012 to conduct advanced observations of solar physics and elementary particle dynamics. For nearly 14 years, the device provided invaluable data about the radiation belts, which form a natural protective barrier for Earth but also threaten the electronics of telecommunication satellites. The Van Allen belts are two regions of charged particles trapped by Earth's magnetic field, discovered in 1958 by American physicist James Van Allen. The mission launched in 2012 consisted of two identical probes tasked with studying changes in these regions under the influence of solar activity. Knowledge gained from these instruments has allowed engineers to better design shielding for future crewed missions and satellites operating in high orbits. 14 (lat) — time the probe spent in space The current situation results from the natural depletion of fuel and the gradual degradation of its orbit, which is the standard end-of-life cycle for many human-made objects sent into space. NASA has issued official statements emphasizing that the uncontrolled atmospheric entry should not cause concern, as the statistical probability of debris hitting a person is less than one in several trillion. Uncontrolled entry of the probe means the final burn-up location depends on current weather conditions in the upper layers of the atmosphere and the orientation of the satellite itself. Agency representatives note that most modern missions are planned to minimize the risk of creating permanent space debris in orbit. Media worldwide, from Portugal's SIC Notícias to Britain's Guardian, are tracking the probe's final hours of flight, reporting the predicted impact time set for Tuesday night. Although a mass of 600 kilograms may seem significant, compared to larger space stations or rocket boosters, it is a relatively small object. History of the Van Allen Probe A mission: August 30, 2012 — Mission launch; July 19, 2019 — End of operations; March 10, 2026 — Deorbiting Rescue services and astronomical observatories remain on standby, but no protective actions on land are anticipated.