In the first two months of 2026, the number of illegal crossings of the EU's external borders fell by 52 percent. However, the situation in the Mediterranean Sea remains tragic – 660 fatalities have already been recorded there.

Sharp decline in migration

In January and February 2026, about 14,000 illegal entries were recorded, representing a 52% year-on-year decline.

Changes on migration routes

The largest decline, by as much as 70%, was recorded on the Central Mediterranean route, though other routes, such as the West African one, remain active.

High mortality rate

Despite the smaller number of border crossing attempts, 660 people have already died or gone missing in the Mediterranean Sea.

The number of illegal crossings of the European Union's external borders fell by 52 percent in January and February 2026 compared to the same period last year. According to the latest data from the agency Frontex, a total of about 14,000 illegal entries into the community's territory were recorded in the first two months of this year. This trend continues a downward tendency, though the scale of the current reduction in migration is exceptionally pronounced against the backdrop of statistics from previous years. The agency's Executive Director, Hans Leijtens, is currently overseeing operations aimed at tightening migratory routes, coordinating actions from the institution's headquarters in Warsaw. 52 (procent) — decline in illegal EU border crossings

The greatest change in statistics was recorded on the Central Mediterranean route, where the number of migrant arrivals decreased by as much as 70 percent. Despite the overall drop in the number of people reaching Europe, the situation at sea remains tragic due to high mortality during crossings. Since the beginning of 2026, 660 migrants have died or gone missing in the Mediterranean Sea, indicating a dangerous increase in the number of victims relative to the smaller scale of movement. Experts point out that criminal groups are using boats in increasingly poor technical condition, which directly translates into the risk of drowning. The Frontex agency is currently concentrating its observation efforts, among other areas, in the region of the Greek island of Crete to monitor the changing routes of smugglers. Decline in activity on routes: Overall decline in EU: 52, Central Mediterranean route: 70

The Frontex agency was established in 2004 to improve the integrated management of the external borders of European Union member states, and its headquarters have been located in Warsaw from the beginning. In 2016, in response to the migration crisis, it was transformed into the European Border and Coast Guard Agency with an expanded mandate and its own corps of officers. By 2024, the number of illegal arrivals to the EU had been systematically declining, reaching a level of about 240,000 annually, which was less than a quarter of the record figures from 2015. Currently, the agency also faces legal challenges, such as the precedent-setting ruling by the Court of Justice of the European Union in December 2025 concerning a Syrian refugee. At the same time, data from other periods showed local increases in migratory pressure, for example by 154 percent on the West Africa to Canary Islands route in the first half of 2024. However, the latest report confirms that the beginning of 2026 brought a clear calming on the main routes leading to Europe. Migration statistics (January-February 2026): 1. Number of illegal entries — 14,000; 2. Fatalities and missing persons — 660

Mentioned People

  • Hans Leijtens — Executive Director of Frontex, the European Border and Coast Guard Agency