German Chancellor Merz and Syrian President al-Sharaa Dispute 80% Refugee Return Claim

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Syrian Transitional President Ahmed al-Sharaa became embroiled in a public dispute over who originated the claim that 80 percent of the approximately one million Syrians living in Germany should return to their homeland within three years. At a joint press conference in Berlin on Monday, Merz stated that it was "also the wish" of al-Sharaa that around 80 percent of Syrians currently in Germany should return within that timeframe. The remark drew immediate criticism from politicians across several parties, who accused Merz of setting an unrealistic target and damaging integration efforts. By Tuesday, Merz had issued a clarifying statement attributing the figure to al-Sharaa. Al-Sharaa then flatly rejected that account at an event hosted by the London think tank Chatham House, saying the words had come from the Chancellor himself.

Al-Sharaa ties any return to jobs and reconstruction Speaking in London, al-Sharaa said the characterization of his position was "somewhat exaggerated." „In truth, the statement is somewhat exaggerated. It was not I who said that, but it was attributed to me. It was the Mr. Chancellor who said these words, and that happened during a conversation” — Ahmed al-Sharaa via Berliner Zeitung Al-Sharaa tied any large-scale return of Syrian refugees to concrete conditions: sufficient jobs must first be created and foreign companies brought into the country, and the return must proceed in an organized manner. He said that if the right circumstances were created, he could "guarantee" that 80 percent of Syrians would return voluntarily. German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul backed Merz's position, saying the Chancellor's goal was "naturally the goal of the Federal Government" and that the core of the Berlin meeting had been to work toward Syria becoming a country where people could live safely and with economic prospects. Wadephul had himself expressed doubt during a visit to the heavily destroyed town of Harasta near Damascus in late October, saying at the time that "hardly any people can really live here with true dignity," a remark that drew criticism from within his own party.

Economists warn of a serious blow to Germany's labor supply Leading economic institutes warned that a departure on the scale described by Merz would carry significant consequences for the German economy. Timo Wollmershäuser, head of economic research at the Munich-based Ifo Institute, said that repatriating people on that scale "would deal another blow to the production potential." Wollmershäuser noted that immigration in recent years had contributed to delaying Germany's demographic decline, affecting both Ukrainians and Syrians, and that a large proportion of those groups were already integrated into the labor market. Geraldine Dany-Knedlik of the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) called the 80 percent target likely unrealistic, warning that even partial realization of the goal "would exacerbate the demographic pressure on our potential growth." The institutes' joint forecast projected that growth in Germany's production potential, currently at 0.2 percent according to N-tv, would come to a complete standstill by the end of the decade. According to data from the Central Register of Foreigners cited by N-tv, there are currently around 930,000 Syrian nationals in Germany; if 80 percent were to return, that would mathematically amount to 740,000 people. N-tv also reported that around 300,000 Syrians hold jobs in Germany, with the Federal Employment Agency putting the employment rate at 42 percent, and 60 percent of those employed working as qualified specialists.

Hesse minister floats ships across the Mediterranean for repatriations Hesse Interior Minister Roman Poseck of the CDU entered the debate by raising the possibility of using large ships via the Mediterranean as a logistical option for repatriations. Poseck told the German Press Agency that, given the scale of the logistical challenge, he was "open to all conceivable paths," ranging from direct flight connections to ship routes via the Mediterranean to routes through third countries. The "Bild" newspaper had previously reported that security circles were already considering large ships as an alternative to aircraft in the event of significantly increased repatriation numbers. Poseck said he supported Merz's position that the vast majority of Syrians in Germany should return, adding that Syrians were "urgently needed" in Syria for reconstruction. He drew a distinction between Syrians with only temporary subsidiary protection status and those who were well-integrated, held permanent residence, or had obtained German citizenship, saying the latter group should "of course be able to stay." Poseck added that deportations to Syria must eventually become possible again as a "means of pressure" to drive forward voluntary departures, while acknowledging that some Syrians themselves wished to return and rebuild their former homeland.

Germany became home to a large Syrian population following the mass displacement caused by the Syrian civil war, which began in 2011. The largest wave of arrivals came during 2015 and 2016, when hundreds of thousands of Syrians sought refuge across Europe. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was ousted in December 2024, and Ahmed al-Sharaa has led a transitional government in Damascus since January 2025. The end of the Assad regime reopened political debate in Germany about the legal basis for Syrian asylum and subsidiary protection status, with Chancellor Merz having previously argued that the civil war's end removed the remaining grounds for asylum.