Italy's Judicial Reform Referendum: Exit Polls Show Narrow Defeat for Meloni Government

Exit polls and projections from Italy's two-day constitutional referendum on judicial reform, which closed on Monday, showed Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's government narrowly losing the vote, with the "No" camp leading by a margin of roughly 53.9% to 46.1% according to a projection by state broadcaster RAI. Earlier exit polls from Opinio for RAI and SWG for the television channel La7 placed the "No" vote between 49% and 53%, against 47% to 51% for the government-backed "Yes" campaign. The polling firm Youtrend put the "No" side at 51.5% against 48.5% for "Yes." Turnout reached approximately 60%, significantly higher than expected following a campaign that Reuters described as full of aggression. The result, if confirmed, would represent the most significant political setback for Meloni since she took office in October 2022.

Reform would have reshaped Italy's judiciary from the ground up The referendum asked Italian voters to approve changes to several articles of the constitution, with the central provision being a strict separation of career paths for judges and prosecutors. Under the current system, members of the judiciary belong to a single professional corps and can move between prosecutorial and judicial functions throughout their careers. The proposed reform would have ended this practice entirely, with no possibility of switching roles. Additionally, the CSM would have been split into two separate sections, with members chosen by lottery rather than election. A separate court would have taken over disciplinary proceedings for the judiciary. The government argued the changes would make the justice system more accountable, reduce potential bias against defendants, and prevent politically motivated factions from distributing senior posts to their allies. As the government itself acknowledged, however, the reform would not have addressed Italy's notoriously slow legal system, which analysts say weighs on the broader economy.

Opposition energized, Meloni rules out resignation Meloni publicly backed the "Yes" campaign and analysts described the referendum as the biggest political test of her government's three and a half years in power. Despite the apparent defeat, she had ruled out resigning regardless of the outcome, explicitly distancing herself from the fate of former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, whose government fell abruptly after he lost a constitutional referendum in 2016. The result is nonetheless expected to leave her more politically exposed, according to analysts cited by Reuters. The two main opposition parties, the center-left Democratic Party and the Five Star Movement, opposed the reform and argued it would weaken judicial independence and do nothing to resolve structural problems such as lengthy trial durations and overcrowded prisons. The result is expected to give both parties momentum to build a broader coalition against Meloni ahead of the next general elections. Pollsters noted before the vote that many "No" voters were likely motivated by general dissatisfaction with the Meloni administration rather than the technical substance of the reform itself.

Italy's relationship between the political class and the judiciary has been a source of sustained tension for decades, most visibly during the "Mani Pulite" (Clean Hands) investigations of the early 1990s, which dismantled the established party system through corruption prosecutions. Constitutional referendums in Italy do not require a minimum turnout threshold to be valid, meaning Monday's result stands regardless of participation levels. The last major constitutional referendum before this one was held in 2016 under Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, who had staked his political future on the outcome and resigned after losing.

No (against reform): 53.9, Yes (for reform): 46.1

Broader political climate weighed on Meloni's campaign The timing of the referendum proved difficult for Meloni on multiple fronts beyond the substance of the judicial debate. Reuters reported that Italian voters hold a marked antipathy toward her ally, United States President Donald Trump, and that concerns are widespread about the impact of the ongoing US-Israel war against Iran on already-elevated domestic energy prices. Pollsters said these factors fed into protest voting against the government among a portion of the "No" electorate. The result comes one and a half years before Italy's next scheduled general elections in 2027, giving Meloni time to recover politically but also leaving her coalition exposed to a reinvigorated opposition. In all polls conducted before the referendum, Meloni and her party Fratelli d'Italia had remained far ahead of all other parties, meaning the defeat does not immediately threaten her parliamentary majority. Die Welt noted that Meloni has already governed longer than almost all other recent Italian heads of government, a record that gives her coalition a degree of institutional stability even after a significant popular rebuke.

60 (percent) — Voter turnout, significantly higher than expected