US-Iran Ceasefire Begins as Trump Declares Victory in Strait of Hormuz Crisis

A two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran, announced by President Donald Trump on April 7, 2026, less than two hours before his deadline for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, sent Brent crude prices tumbling roughly 13% to around $95 a barrel, though shipping companies and energy analysts warned that a return to normal trade flows could take months. Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araghchi confirmed that Tehran would halt counter-attacks and guarantee safe passage for vessels transiting the strait, conditional on the cessation of strikes against Iran. Trump told Agence France-Presse the United States had won a "total and complete victory." The deal was mediated by Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, and Trump pledged that U.S. forces would assist with the shipping backlog. Iran launched further attacks on Israel and Gulf states shortly after the announcement, underscoring the fragility of the agreement.

Over 1,000 ships still stranded, backlog may outlast truce About 1,000 ocean-going vessels remain trapped inside the Gulf, including roughly 187 laden tankers carrying 172 (million barrels) — crude oil and refined products stranded inside the strait of crude oil and refined products, according to ship tracker Kpler. Daejin Lee, global head of research at Fertmax FZCO, said a 14-day window is simply too short to restore the confidence needed to clear the backlog, even under normal conditions. „A 14-day window is simply too short to restore the level of confidence needed to fully unwind the embedded uncertainty premium - particularly for Arabian Gulf loading routes” — Daejin Lee via Reuters Hapag-Lloyd chief executive Rolf Habben Jansen, speaking on a call to customers, said resuming normal traffic throughout the company's network would take at least 6 to 8 weeks and that more security assurances were needed. He estimated additional costs from the Middle East crisis at $50 million to $60 million per week, up from a previously stated $40 million to $50 million, and warned the German shipping group would pass some of those costs on to customers. Six of Hapag-Lloyd's own vessels, with a combined capacity of about 25,000 standard containers, are among those stuck in the region. Danish group Maersk said the ceasefire may create transit opportunities but does not yet provide full maritime certainty, adding it was not making any changes to specific services. „Any decision to transit the Strait of Hormuz will be based on continuous risk assessments, close monitoring of the security situation, and available guidance from relevant authorities and partners” — Maersk via Reuters

Key events: US-Iran conflict and ceasefire: — ; — ; —

France leads 15-nation mission as Qatar counts energy losses French President Emmanuel Macron announced that about 15 countries are currently mobilized and participating in planning, under France's leadership, for a strictly defensive mission to facilitate the resumption of traffic through the strait in coordination with Iran. „About 15 countries are currently mobilised and are participating in the planning, under France's leadership, to enable the implementation of this strictly defensive mission in coordination with Iran to facilitate the resumption of traffic” — Emmanuel Macron via Reuters Macron also called for Lebanon to be explicitly included in the ceasefire deal, noting the situation there remained critical. Qatar has reported that Iranian attacks knocked out 17 (percent) — share of Qatar's LNG capacity damaged, potentially for up to five years of its liquefied natural gas capacity, damage that could take up to five years to repair. South Korea's government said it would do its best to secure passage for the 26 South Korean-flagged vessels stranded in the region, with Seoul aiming to move those ships out during the two-week ceasefire window. The war, now in its sixth week, has claimed more than 5,000 lives across nearly a dozen countries, according to Reuters reporting.

Energy market scars expected to linger long after guns fall silent Even if the ceasefire holds, analysts and investors cautioned that a return to pre-war oil prices faces multiple structural obstacles. Before the conflict began, a barrel of Brent crude traded at around $70; the war drove prices sharply higher before Wednesday's ceasefire-driven plunge to around $94 to $95. Iran's reported plan to charge vessels a toll for safe Hormuz passage — as reported by the Associated Press — would add further upward pressure on prices. One oil investor told Reuters Breakingviews that it could take up to four months for a degree of normalcy to return to the market. Producers such as Saudi Arabia are expected to hold back on a return to full output until they have greater confidence the ceasefire is durable. Oil investors are also likely to add a risk premium to crude prices to reflect the possibility of renewed fighting. The Strait of Hormuz has historically been the world's most critical oil transit chokepoint. The conflict that began on February 28, 2026, with U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran — referred to in source articles as Operation Epic Fury — prompted Iran to blockade the strait, all but closing a waterway that handles roughly one-fifth of global oil and gas shipments. For Asia, which relies on the Middle East for 60% of its oil imports and 80% of its gas imports, the disruption has been particularly severe, forcing several countries to curb industrial output and ration fuel supplies.

Brent crude price: before and after ceasefire announcement: Brent crude price (before: ~$110+ (war-era elevated price), after: ~$94-95/barrel (post-ceasefire announcement, April 8, 2026)); Hapag-Lloyd weekly crisis costs (before: $40-50 million per week (previously stated), after: $50-60 million per week (updated estimate, April 8, 2026))