Tensions in the Middle East reached a breaking point on March 18, 2026, as Iran launched retaliatory missile strikes against the United Arab Emirates and other Gulf states. The attack, which saw a missile land near Dubai's Al Minhad Air Base, follows the assassination of Iranian security chief Ali Larijani. In response, the United States deployed heavy ordnance near the strategic Strait of Hormuz, sparking fears of a global energy crisis and disrupting Polish defense contracts.

Iran launched missile strikes against the United Arab Emirates and other Gulf states on March 18, 2026, with one missile landing near the Al Minhad Air Base located approximately 15 miles south of Dubai. The attacks came in the wake of the killing of Ali Larijani, a senior Iranian official who served as secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, in an Israeli airstrike on March 17, 2026. The United States responded with a powerful military strike near the Strait of Hormuz, deploying two-ton bombs in the operation. The escalation marks a significant widening of the conflict that began on February 28, 2026, when the United States and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury against Iran.

South Korea secures oil guarantees as Hormuz tensions spike South Korea's government announced that the UAE had guaranteed continued oil supplies to Seoul despite the ongoing conflict in the region. The South Korean government also stated that it had received no request from the United States regarding any involvement in the Strait of Hormuz. The assurances from Abu Dhabi came as energy markets reacted to the Iranian missile strikes and the prospect of disruption to one of the world's most critical oil transit corridors. The Al Minhad Air Base, which was in proximity to one of the Iranian missile impacts, is a major military hub in the Gulf region. The South Korean statement underscored the diplomatic and logistical efforts by countries dependent on Gulf energy exports to secure supply chains as the conflict intensified.

The US-Israel military campaign against Iran, designated Operation Epic Fury, began on February 28, 2026, and resulted in the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in the initial strikes. His son, Mojtaba Khamenei, was appointed Supreme Leader on March 9, 2026. Ali Larijani, who had served as secretary of the Supreme National Security Council since 2025 and previously held the same post from 2005 to 2007, was killed in an Israeli airstrike on March 17, 2026, one day before the Iranian retaliatory strikes on the UAE and Gulf states.

Polish arms contracts under threat as war disrupts supply chains The widening Middle East conflict is threatening Polish arms contracts and military deliveries, according to reporting by Biznes Wprost. The disruption is particularly relevant given Poland's significant procurement programs involving equipment sourced from partners in the region or dependent on global supply chains affected by the conflict. The war's economic ripple effects are being felt beyond the immediate theater of operations, with analysts warning that the conflict could delay or complicate scheduled deliveries to the Polish armed forces. The situation adds pressure to Warsaw's defense buildup at a time when Poland has been accelerating military spending in response to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.

Loan installments in Poland may rise instead of fall Financial analysts in Poland are warning that the economic fallout from the Middle East conflict could reverse expectations for declining loan installments, with scenarios now pointing toward potential increases rather than the reductions previously forecast, according to Business Insider Poland. The volatility in energy markets triggered by Iranian strikes on Gulf infrastructure and the US military response near the Strait of Hormuz is feeding into broader macroeconomic uncertainty. Rising oil prices driven by fears of supply disruption typically translate into inflationary pressure, which in turn influences central bank interest rate decisions. Polish borrowers who had anticipated relief on mortgage and consumer loan repayments may now face a prolonged period of elevated costs. The Strait of Hormuz carries a substantial share of global oil exports, and any sustained military activity in its vicinity directly affects crude prices on international markets. Analysts tracking the Warsaw Stock Exchange and Polish bond markets noted increased volatility in early trading on March 18, 2026, as investors assessed the implications of the overnight escalation.