Tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran have led to a sharp increase in energy commodity prices. The price of Brent crude oil has surpassed the $90 per barrel barrier, which has immediately impacted Polish gas stations. Diesel fuel is experiencing the most significant price increase, reaching a growth rate not seen since March 2022. This situation, combined with problems with gas exports from Qatar, poses a real threat to the profitability of transport, agriculture, and food price stability in the country.

Oil above $90 per barrel

The price of a barrel of Brent crude oil broke through the psychological barrier, recording a gain of over 8 percent on Friday.

Diesel market crisis

Diesel fuel in Poland is rising at the fastest pace since the start of the war in Ukraine, hitting haulage companies.

Threat to agriculture

Rising gas and fuel prices increase the production costs of nitrogen fertilizers, which will translate into higher food prices.

The escalation of tensions in the Middle East between the US, Israel, and Iran triggered an immediate reaction on global commodity markets. The price of a barrel of oil broke through the 90 USD — psychological barrier for the market, with Brent crude gaining over 8 proc. — in a single day on Friday. These global turbulences are already transferring to the Polish fuel market, where diesel fuel is recording the strongest price increases. Diesel is currently rising at the fastest pace since March 2022, which represents a significant burden for the transport sector and farms, where diesel is a key fuel for machinery.

The situation is worsened by reports from the gas market. Qatar has temporarily halted exports of this commodity, and experts warn that restoring full supplies could take many months. For the Polish economy, this means the risk of stagflation. The cost-pass-through mechanism is particularly visible in agriculture: more expensive gas drastically increases production costs, such as those associated with nitrogen fertilizers, which in a short time results in higher retail food prices in stores.

Increased border traffic related to fuel price differences is being observed. In Germany, customs authorities are conducting checks on drivers engaging in the phenomenon known as fuel tourism, seeking cheaper refueling in Poland and the Czech Republic. While local price differences attract consumers, the overall trend remains upward for the entire region. Effects of rising energy prices: Road transport: relatively more stable fuel costs → rapid increase in diesel expenses; Agriculture: lower cost pressure → more expensive fuel and fertilizers; Drivers near the border: routine local refueling → searching for cheaper stations abroad

Europe faced similar cost pressures following the Russian aggression against Ukraine in 2022. The current crisis, although triggered by a different conflict, replicates the same pattern: a sudden disruption in the supply of energy commodities hits supply chains and citizens' wallets. Finance Minister Domański commented on the situation, stating in an official statement: „Dostrzegam potencjalne konsekwencje” (I see potential consequences) — Finance Minister Domański. Although the statement is restrained, it indicates the seriousness of the situation in light of the fact that the barrel of oil has once again become a key indicator of the Polish economy's condition.

Mentioned People

  • minister finansów Domański — Finance Minister commenting on the impact of oil and gas prices on the Polish economy