The latest macroeconomic data indicates Poland's strong position, with GDP growth projected to reach 4% in 2026, making it one of the leaders of the European economic cycle. Meanwhile, the US has seen growth cool to 1.4% amid unexpectedly high PCE inflation, casting doubt on the Federal Reserve's plans for imminent interest rate cuts. In the European Union, preparations are underway to implement the Industrial Accelerator Act aimed at strengthening industrial competitiveness.

Ambitious goals of the Polish government

Poland plans to overtake Spain in GDP per capita by 2026, and within 6 years catch up with the United Kingdom thanks to investment growth.

Disappointment in the US

US GDP grew by only 1.4% against forecasts of around 3%, while PCE inflation remains above target.

EU industrial strategy

The new Industrial Accelerator Act is set to come into force in February 2026, supporting the made in Europe principle and accelerating investments.

Stabilization in the SME sector

The business climate index rose to 88.6 points, signaling a slow recovery in the willingness to invest by Polish companies.

The Polish economy is showing strong growth momentum, confirmed by forecasts from Bank Pekao indicating 4% GDP growth in 2026. Finance Minister Andrzej Domański declared an ambition to catch up with the United Kingdom in terms of purchasing power parity-adjusted GDP per capita within the next 5-6 years. This optimism is supported by data from the Central Statistical Office, which in February 2026 showed stabilization or improvement in the economic climate across all surveyed sectors, with particular emphasis on gastronomy and accommodation. Completely different sentiments prevail across the ocean. The US Department of Commerce reported that GDP in the fourth quarter of 2025 grew by only 1.4%, a result significantly lower than the expected 2.8-3.0%. At the same time, core PCE inflation rose by 0.4% month-on-month in December, complicating the Federal Reserve's plans for monetary policy easing. High interest rates in the US are beginning to clearly dampen the momentum of its economy, which is impacting global trade. Since its accession to the European Union in 2004, Poland has been systematically closing the gap with Western European countries, recording one of the highest cumulative GDP growth rates on the continent.At the EU level, a key event will be the planned presentation of the Industrial Accelerator Act on February 25, 2026. This initiative aims to reindustrialize the community by emphasizing local production („made in Europe”) and simplifying investment procedures. It is a response to the aggressive industrial policies of China and the US. Within the eurozone itself, sentiments remain mixed – while Germany shows a slight rebound in the PMI index, France continues to struggle with stagnation in the services and industrial sectors. Despite good forecasts for Poland, local entrepreneurs are showing caution. The investment index for SMEs stands at 88.6 points, still below the neutral level of 100 points. Experts also point to staffing shortages, particularly in the modern technology and 5G infrastructure sectors, which could become a barrier to further acceleration.

Mentioned People

  • Andrzej Domański — Polish Minister of Finance, announced record investment growth and economic catch-up with the United Kingdom.
  • Donald Tusk — Prime Minister of Poland, announced "turbo economic acceleration" in 2026.
  • Mariusz Zielonka — Chief economist of the Lewiatan Confederation, assessing the state of the economic climate in GUS surveys.