Poland at CPAC: An Alliance in the Shadow of American Divisions

Scene in Dallas: An Ally in Partisan Theater. President Karol Nawrocki, as the only sitting head of state, appeared on March 28 at the CPAC conference in Dallas. He based his speech on the foundation of historical ties, invoking the figures of Tadeusz Kościuszko and Kazimierz Pułaski as symbols of a shared struggle for freedom.

This appearance was not a standard diplomatic visit, but a conscious entry onto the stage of American domestic politics. Nawrocki positioned Poland not just as a USA ally, but as part of the same „Christian civilization,” which was intended to resonate with the conservative CPAC audience.

A key element was the sharp criticism of Russia, which the president called a hotbed of „corruption and violence,” rather than a defender of conservatism. This was a signal sent to those circles within the Republican Party that might show sympathy toward Moscow, and an attempt to solidify Poland's role as a bastion of the West.

The culmination of the visit was the announcement, made in an interview for TV Republika, that Poland had received an invitation to the G20 group. Presenting this fact in partisan media, immediately following the CPAC appearance, gave it the character of a political reward from a specific faction rather than a neutral diplomatic success.

The CPAC (Conservative Political Action Conference), organized since 1974 by the American Conservative Union, is a barometer of sentiment on the right wing of American politics. In recent years, it has become a platform for the MAGA movement and Donald Trump himself, who has dominated its internal straw polls since 2021. The presence of a foreign leader at this event is interpreted as an explicit endorsement of the political line represented there.

Two Americas: An Ally in a Fractured Country. On the same day that Nawrocki was speaking in Texas, between eight and nine million Americans were protesting in the streets of all 50 states. The „No Kings” movement organized over 3,300 marches, making it one of the largest single-day mobilizations in U.S. history.

Protesters opposed the war in Iran, the actions of the immigration agency ICE, and the authoritarian tendencies of the Trump administration. In Washington, tens of thousands of people marched to the Lincoln Memorial, a symbolic site of the struggle for civil rights.

36% — approval for Donald Trump The scale of the divisions is reflected in the fact that approval for President Trump dropped to 36% in a Reuters/Ipsos poll, the lowest result since his return to the White House. The Polish president's speech was therefore directed at one, shrinking part of America, while ignoring the other, mobilized and massive part.

The presence at the protests of figures such as Bruce Springsteen in Minnesota or Robert De Niro in New York shows that opposition to Trump is also deeply rooted in American culture. „„Inni prezydenci już wcześniej testowali konstytucyjne granice swojej władzy, ale żaden nie stanowił tak egzystencjalnego zagrożenia dla naszych wolności i naszego bezpieczeństwa. Trzeba go powstrzymać”” (Other presidents have tested the constitutional limits of their power before, but none has posed such an existential threat to our freedoms and our security. He must be stopped.) — Robert De Niro via Courrier international.

Succession after Trump: A Gamble on an Uncertain Future. The argument that Nawrocki is pragmatically building relations with the sitting government falls apart when confronted with the facts. Donald Trump, according to the constitution, cannot seek re-election in 2028, and the Republican Party is already in the fervor of a succession battle.

A poll conducted at CPAC shows that the conservative movement is not a monolith. Vice President JD Vance won 53% support, but Secretary of State Marco Rubio recorded a massive surge to 35% from just 3% a year earlier. This is a signal that the race is wide open.

CPAC 2026 Straw Poll — 2028 Presidential Preferences: JD Vance: 53, Marco Rubio: 35, All others: 2

This rivalry reflects deep ideological cracks. Vance represents the wing skeptical of military interventions, while Rubio's hawkish stance on Iran has brought him popularity. Poland, by betting on „Trumpism,” is betting on an idea whose future leader and foreign policy direction are unknown.

CPAC Straw Poll — Rubio vs. Vance, 2025 and 2026: JD Vance (before: 61% (2025), after: 53% (2026)); Marco Rubio (before: 3% (2025), after: 35% (2026))

Additional cracks in the MAGA movement are signaled by the departure from Congress of Marjorie Taylor Greene, once a close ally of Trump. Polish foreign policy has tied itself to a movement that is internally unstable and whose future depends on the outcome of a brutal fight for the leader's legacy.

Polish strategy seems to ignore this dynamic, just as it ignores the fates of other figures whose careers collapsed under the weight of controversy, such as Mónica Oltra in Valencia, who is returning to politics but with the prospect of a court trial. The political future is volatile, and alliances based on personal arrangements tend to be fragile.

The invitation to the G20, while valuable, may turn out to be a Pyrrhic victory. It was obtained at the cost of tying Poland's fate to one, uncertain faction in a deeply polarized state. When Delcy Rodríguez in Venezuela tries to cautiously rebuild relations with Washington after the fall of Maduro, it shows that in international politics there are no eternal alliances, only shifting interests.

President Nawrocki announced Poland's entry into an elite club in Dallas. In reality, Poland received an invitation from one half of America, while the other half marched in the streets to say they want no kings.