The British Prime Minister is personally fighting for votes in local elections, while the Polish President seeks allies across the ocean against his own government. The era of secure terms has come to an end.
Modern executive power has lost the privilege of distance. Prime Minister Keir Starmer, instead of managing the country from Downing Street, spent the past weekend in the Longsight and Levenshulme districts, fighting for every vote in the rain. The by-election in the Gorton and Denton constituency, a traditional leftist bastion, has become a „to be or not to be” test for him. Reuters reports bluntly: support for Labour is „evaporating”.
The threat comes from two flanks simultaneously, forcing the head of government into unprecedented personal involvement. On the left, the Green Party is scoring points against the cabinet's moderate course; on the right, Reform UK, continuing Nigel Farage's line, is attempting to take over the Eurosceptic electorate. The New Statesman describes the result as „anyone's call”, which for an incumbent Prime Minister in a previously safe seat is a diagnosis of political fever. Starmer is risking his authority, as a loss would shake the stability of his cabinet just months after taking office.
The Gorton constituency in Manchester served as an unassailable stronghold for the Labour Party for decades, symbolizing the link between the labor movement and the industrial North of England. This dominance survived the Thatcher and Blair eras, only crumbling in the face of modern polarization.A similar high-stakes game, albeit on a different chessboard, is being played by President Karol Nawrocki. During a visit to the USA, he posthumously awarded the Grand Cross of the Order of Merit of the Republic of Poland to Sergeant Michael Ollis, which became a catalyst for political support from Donald Trump. The former US President was lavish with praise, calling Nawrocki „fantastic” and predicting a great career for him. This gesture is not just courtesy, but leverage in a domestic dispute over the direction of security policy.
„President Nawrocki is doing a fantastic job. He is going to be a great president, Poland is lucky to have him.” — Donald Trump
In Warsaw, meanwhile, a conflict continues over the SAFE mechanism. Deputy Prime Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz calls for „shifting into sixth gear” in arms production, but the President contests the EU plans, suggesting that the EU is ceasing to be the „center of the universe.” The dispute concerns not only money but also decision-making sovereignty, as seen in reports of a „secret shopping list” favoring Western corporations. Added to this is communication chaos: Prime Minister Donald Tusk alleges a lack of information flow between the Palace and the government regarding the French nuclear umbrella.
Tension is heightened by an announcement from Prof. Sławomir Cenckiewicz. The historian announced that work on the annex to the WSI (Military Information Services) verification report is nearing completion, and the President will receive a proposal for action as early as this quarter. This opens another front in the Polish-Polish war, where history becomes ammunition in the ongoing struggle for influence within the special services.Decision-making paralysis is not the exclusive domain of Warsaw or London. In Catalonia, Premier Salvador Illa put everything on one card by adopting a provisional budget without a guaranteed majority. The region's fiscal deficit is estimated at 21.092 billion euros, and negotiations with the key ERC party have reached a standstill. Illa gave the Republican leader, Oriol Junqueras, one week to decide, employing a policy of fait accompli.
„No contemplo otro escenario que aprobar los presupuestos porque es lo que necesita Cataluña” (I am not considering any scenario other than passing the budget because it is what Catalonia needs.) — Salvador Illa
Nervous disciplinary moves are also visible in the Polish party landscape. Chairman Jarosław Kaczyński announced a „great march” and referred the case of MEP Patryk Jaki to the ethics committee. The PiS leader is trying to close ranks before announcing a candidate for Prime Minister, which is set to happen on March 7. Preliminary reports speak of a „big surprise,” which in party language often means a desperate flight forward.
Critics of such actions might argue that this is the natural dynamic of democracy. Factional friction and sharp budget negotiations are the lifeblood of politics. However, the scale of risk taken by leaders in the last 48 hours suggests something else. This is not routine management, but crisis management, where a lack of majority (Catalonia), dual executive power (Poland), or the erosion of a bastion (UK) paralyze the state's strategic decisions.
If Keir Starmer loses in Manchester, his mandate to govern will be undermined faster than any of his predecessors. If the dispute over SAFE and the WSI annex in Poland paralyzes army modernization, the costs will be borne not by politicians, but by citizens. We live in times where stability is an anomaly and political gambling is the new norm. Leaders do not so much exercise power as constantly fight for it, often at the expense of the state's long-term interest.