Major political parties, from the British Labour Party to Poland's Law and Justice, are losing their gravitational pull on the electorate. In response to the progressive fragmentation of the political scene, leaders are resorting to nervous discipline and forced consolidation.
Discipline as a Substitute for Strategy. Political leaders in Europe are ceasing to manage and starting merely to discipline. Jarosław Kaczyński, chairman of Law and Justice (PiS), has in recent hours decided to refer MEP Patryk Jaki to the party's ethics committee. This move, aimed at the Sovereign Poland politician, follows the earlier marginalization of former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki.
The PiS chairman announced a plan for a „great march,” intended to be a demonstration of the opposition's strength. In reality, this initiative resembles the building of defensive walls rather than preparation for an offensive. Kaczyński states bluntly: „Receptą na zwycięstwo jest jedność” (The recipe for victory is unity) — Jarosław Kaczyński, which in political practice means the elimination of internal dissonance.
Behind the scenes, the search is on for new faces to refresh the party's image. Names being mentioned include Tobiasz Bocheński and the Mayor of Otwock, Jarosław Margielski. This sudden need for personnel replacement suggests that the former monolith has cracked, and the leadership is attempting to glue it back together through personal reshuffles and a hardening of the line against factional leaders.
Besieged Fortresses of the West. A similar defensive mechanism can be observed in the United Kingdom, where Prime Minister Keir Starmer was forced to personally engage in a local campaign. In the Gorton and Denton constituency, a traditional Labour stronghold, the head of government supported candidate Angeliki Stogia, fighting for every vote in the pouring rain of the Longsight and Levenshulme districts.
The situation in Manchester is a mirror image of the problems facing the Polish right, albeit with a different ideological vector. The Labour Party is being encircled from two sides: by the Green Party offering left-wing radicalism, and by Reform UK, which under Nigel Farage is capturing the conservative electorate. Lucy Fielder of Reuters notes that support for Labour is „evaporating” in places that for decades were considered politically untouchable.
The phenomenon of the erosion of traditional mass parties (so-called catch-all parties) accelerated in Europe after the 2008 financial crisis. Voters are increasingly migrating toward niche or protest formations, forcing mainstream movements to radicalize their language or enter into exotic coalitions.
This uncertainty translates into concrete data. In Spain, the President of Catalonia, Salvador Illa, is pushing through a provisional budget without a guaranteed majority, estimating the region's fiscal deficit at €21.092 billion. The lack of agreement with the left-wing ERC regarding the IRPF tax is paralyzing the decision-making process, forcing the Socialists into a risky game of va banque.
Radicalization as a Flight Forward. Faced with a loss of control over the center, groups are turning to identity-based solutions. The Spanish People's Party (PP), feeling the breath of the Vox party on its neck, is initiating bans on wearing burqas in public places in Murcia and Palma de Mallorca. In Toledo, similar regulations were pushed through in direct cooperation with right-wing populists.
This is a classic example of a flight forward. Former Prime Minister José María Aznar warns: „España no puede caer en el populismo de derechas” (Spain cannot fall into right-wing populism) — José María Aznar, yet local PP activists see radicalization as the only method to stop the outflow of voters. In Poland, Jarosław Kaczyński employs a similar tactic, consolidating the electorate around the slogan of sovereignty and disciplining politicians like Patryk Jaki so as not to cede ground on the right flank.
Perspective: The End of the Era of Calm. It is often argued that these are just temporary turbulences and that large parties have the capacity to regenerate. However, the scale of the challenges—from Manchester to Catalonia—contradicts this thesis. The problem is not tactics, but the structural failure of old party models when faced with a new, fragmented reality.
If Labour loses in Gorton and Salvador Illa fails to pass the budget, an era of unstable minority governments awaits us. In Poland, the announced PiS march and the disciplining of the ranks is an attempt to freeze this process. The question is whether the „tightening of the screws” by the chairman will stop the erosion or merely accelerate the crack, from which new, non-systemic forces may benefit.
Unity, so sought after by leaders from London to Warsaw, is becoming a scarce commodity. In politics, as in physics, the tighter you squeeze a handful of sand, the faster it slips through your fingers.
€21.092 billion — Estimated fiscal deficit of Catalonia, which has become the axis of political dispute between Barcelona and Madrid.
Perspektywy mediów: Left-leaning media (The Guardian, New Statesman) view internal disputes as an opportunity for a course correction toward a progressive direction (Greens, ERC). Right-leaning and business media (Reuters, Bloomberg) interpret the same phenomena as evidence of weak leadership and an opportunity for the populist right (Reform UK, Vox, factions within PiS).