Traditional bastions of power, from working-class Manchester to the Imperial Palace in Tokyo, are crumbling before our eyes. Political leaders, instead of reforming systems, are resorting to a desperate defense of the status quo, risking a total loss of credibility.

The Geography of Fear: The Fall of Safe Seats. The myth of the political „safe nest” is currently passing into history. Keir Starmer, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, spent the past weekend in the rainy districts of Longsight and Levenshulme. His personal presence in the Manchester by-elections is not a gesture of courtesy, but a symptom of deep anxiety.

The constituencies of Gorton and Denton, historically fused with the Labour Party, have ceased to be a political monolith. The threat has arrived simultaneously from two sides: the leftist Green Party is siphoning off the progressive electorate, while the right-wing populist Reform UK is targeting conservative voters. Reuters reports bluntly that support for Labour in this region is „evaporating”.

The situation in Manchester is symptomatic of a broader trend where traditional electoral loyalties are giving way to immediate emotions. Nigel Farage, leader of Reform UK, treats this area as another battlefield in the „backyard” of British culture. A potential defeat for candidate Angeliki Stogia would be a devastating blow for Starmer, undermining the stability of his cabinet just moments after averting an internal leadership crisis.

A similar mechanism of political gambling can be observed in Catalonia. Premier Salvador Illa decided to adopt a provisional budget without a guaranteed majority in parliament. This is a game of va banque. The Generalitat is operating on the edge, estimating a fiscal deficit of 21.092 billion euros, which serves as ammunition in the dispute with Madrid.

In both northern England and Catalonia, we are witnessing the end of the era of political predictability. Manchester, shaped by the Industrial Revolution, was a bastion of the left for decades. Catalonia, since the constitutional crisis of 2017, remains in a state of permanent ferment, where the ability to pass a budget has become the only real measure of power, replacing long-term development visions.

Illa issued an ultimatum to the leader of the ERC, Oriol Junqueras, giving him a week to decide. This is a policy of maximum pressure, where the stakes are not only 30,000 euros in grants for apartment renovations in Barcelona, but above all the survival of the socialist government in a region torn by contradictions.

The Theater of Authenticity and State Fiction. While leaders fight for territory, their credibility shatters over the details of everyday life. Andreas Stoch, the SPD candidate in Baden-Württemberg, provided a textbook example of political dissonance. A visit to a Tafel facility in Bühl, which helps the poorest, clashed with his instructions to his driver regarding the purchase of luxury pâté in France.

The contrast between the poverty of the food bank beneficiaries and the culinary whims of the social democrat is staggering. Stoch later admitted at a meeting with „Badische Neueste Nachrichten” that he had „marched into a trap.” His explanations about the superiority of French cold cuts over German ones just days before the March 8 elections sound like political suicide.

„Ich bin da in einen Fettnapf marschiert” (I marched right into a trap/blunder there.) — Andreas Stoch

However, the problem of authenticity has a second, more systemic layer. The federal government of Germany has officially sanctioned the creation of fake online identities by the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV). Interior Minister Nancy Faeser defends this method as necessary in the fight against extremism and Russian disinformation.

A state that requires transparency from its citizens while wearing masks itself. MP Martina Renner of Die Linke rightly points out that this undermines trust in the digital space. We are dealing with a paradox here: to defend democracy, the services break the terms of service of the social platforms where that democracy debates.

„Diese Methoden der Vortäuschung falscher Identitäten verstoßen nicht nur gegen die Nutzungsbedingungen der Plattformen, sondern untergraben auch das Vertrauen im digitalen Raum.” (These methods of feigning false identities not only violate the platforms' terms of use but also undermine trust in the digital space.) — Martina Renner

Guardians of the Empty Throne. The most glaring example of defending form at the expense of substance comes from Japan. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, a woman who broke the glass ceiling in Japanese politics, has become the face of blocking women from the throne. Her support for patrilineal succession is a triumph of ideology over demographics.

The list of successors to Emperor Naruhito is dramatically short. It includes, among others, Prince Hisahito, and the law from 1947 inexorably excludes women. Takaichi suggests restoring former branches of the lineage instead of modernizing the law. This is an action against the logic of survival, dictated by the fear of violating the „authority” of the dynasty.

„男系による皇位継承を維持することは、我が国の皇室の権威と長い歴史を守る上で極めて重要であると考えています。” (I believe that maintaining the male line of succession is extremely important for preserving the authority and long history of our Imperial Family.) — Sanae Takaichi

One could argue that Takaichi's stance or the actions of German intelligence are proof of the strength of a state that does not yield to the pressure of political correctness or naive idealism. Governments must make difficult decisions—whether regarding national security or the protection of centuries-old tradition that binds a nation. Starmer fighting for every vote shows determination, not just weakness.

However, the price for this determination is tangible. Maintaining the male line in Japan could lead to the extinction of the lineage. The BfV's fake accounts erode trust in the rule of law. And the luxury shopping of the SPD candidate right next to a food bank exposes the facade of politicians' social sensitivity. When forms of survival become more important than reality, the system begins to eat its own tail.

21.092 billion euros — Catalonia's estimated fiscal deficit, which has become the axis of political dispute between Barcelona and Madrid.

The future belongs to those who understand that the old walls no longer protect. If the Labour Party loses Manchester, and the Japanese imperial family finds no male heir, these symbols will fall under the weight of their own inertia. Politicians are buying time, paying with a currency they have less and less of: public trust.

The irony of fate is that the Prime Minister of Japan defends a throne for men on which she herself could never sit, and a German socialist dreams of French pâté while his voters count every cent for bread.