Erosion of the Fortress: From Rainy Manchester to the Krakow Referendum

Power is no longer a state of possession, but a process of constant firefighting. The paradox of recent days lies in the fact that leaders with theoretically strong mandates – from the British Prime Minister to the Mayor of Krakow – are forced onto the defensive on their own turf. The thesis is clear: traditional „safe seats” and post-election honeymoon periods have ceased to exist, and political survival today depends on the ability to make a swift, often humiliating withdrawal from decisions already made.

The phenomenon of the erosion of traditional political bastions is being observed across Western Europe. The Gorton constituency in Manchester, the heart of the British labor movement, voted automatically for the Labour Party for decades, just as Krakow, during Jacek Majchrowski's 22-year rule, constituted a stable balance of power that is now undergoing rapid decomposition. Panic in the Bastions. Prime Minister Keir Starmer spent the past weekend in the rainy districts of Longsight and Levenshulme, fighting for every vote in a by-election. His personal involvement in the local campaign in the Gorton and Denton constituency exposes the scale of anxiety at Downing Street. The Reuters agency reports that support for Labour is „evaporating,” and the threat is coming simultaneously from the Green Party and the populist Reform UK.

The situation in Manchester mirrors the problems in Krakow, where Mayor Aleksander Miszalski is performing a sharp U-turn. In the face of referendum initiators gathering nearly 55,000 signatures, the city leader announced a return to free parking on Sundays starting May 1, 2026. This decision, a reversal of the previous reform, is an attempt to demobilize the dissatisfied electorate before the crucial deadline for verifying the referendum petition.

Support for the Krakow Referendum: Signatures collected: 54.5, Minimum required: 58.4

Both politicians are reacting to the same mechanism: a loss of control over the narrative in places that were supposed to be their political base. New Statesman describes the outcome in Manchester as „completely unpredictable,” which for a sitting Prime Minister in a safe seat is a devastating diagnosis. Miszalski, meanwhile, instead of carrying out the promised audit of Jacek Majchrowski's administration, must fight to survive until the end of his own term.

The Purge as a Stabilization Method. When public support cannot be regained, leaders resort to disciplining their own ranks. Isabel Díaz Ayuso, President of the Community of Madrid, is carrying out a brutal reorganization of the People's Party (PP) structures. The dismissal of Education Minister Emilio Viciana and the removal of the „Los Pocholos” group is a signal that in the face of external pressure, loyalty becomes the primary currency.

A similar mechanism worked in the Polish Military Property Agency (AMW). The CEO of the company AMW Kwatera, Maciej Morawski, was dismissed with immediate effect after unilaterally approving the sale of a plot in Sulejówek. The transaction, worth over 11 million PLN and conducted without consultation with the board, violated the fragile rules of corporate oversight. In both cases – Madrid and Warsaw – leaders are cutting personal ties to save institutional integrity from allegations of chaos or corruption.

Geopolitics in the Shadow of Local Wars. Against the backdrop of these tactical skirmishes, Lech Wałęsa, in an interview with AFP, reminds us of the strategic stakes. The former president suggests that Donald Trump may be pursuing a plan for nuclear de-escalation, which in the eyes of the Nobel laureate makes him a potentially „brilliant leader,” rather than a traitor. Wałęsa admits to „remorse” over his own unrealized plans from the past, which serves as a bitter counterpoint to today's politicians, who have no time for long-term plans because they are fighting for survival until the next poll.

„Il n'est pas exclu qu'il soit un dirigeant extraordinairement intelligent et responsable, qui ne veut tout simplement pas conduire à une guerre nucléaire.” (It is not excluded that he is an extraordinarily intelligent and responsible leader, who simply does not want to lead to a nuclear war.) — Lech Wałęsa

One could consider these events as standard corrections in the life cycle of power – governments always lose popularity, and state-owned companies always struggle with oversight. However, the scale and pace of these reactions contradict the thesis of routine. Starmer would not risk his authority in a minor by-election, and Miszalski would not give up parking revenue, if they did not feel that the foundations of their power were shaking.

The future is painted in colors of permanent instability. If the Labour Party loses Gorton and the referendum in Krakow takes place, we will enter a phase where no electoral mandate guarantees reaching the end of a term. Politics is becoming a zero-sum game played in 24-hour cycles, where the only goal is to avoid a knockout. Power has ceased to be a throne to sit upon; it has become a hot seat from which one can fall at any moment – whether because of rain in Manchester or a parking meter in Krakow.