Operation Chaos: How the War with Iran Spiraled Out of Control

Operation Epic Fury, a US-Israeli military campaign, began on February 28, 2026, with a strike that killed Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei. A month later, the conflict, which was supposed to be swift and precise, has spilled over into the entire region, generating military, diplomatic, and religious crises that no one predicted.

The thesis is brutally simple: the US-Israeli campaign against Iran, instead of achieving its intended goals, has triggered a cascade of uncontrolled escalations that undermine regional stability and expose the limits of military force effectiveness.

Asymmetric Response: The Fall of the AWACS. Iran, contrary to expectations, is not a passive recipient of blows. Tehran's response is asymmetric, painful, and aimed at the most sensitive points of American technological power.

The destruction of an American E-3 Sentry AWACS aircraft at the Prince Sultan base in Saudi Arabia is crowning proof of this. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps took responsibility for the attack, carried out by a Shahed drone . This is no minor loss.

15 — E-3G AWACS aircraft remained in US service after the attack on March 27, 2026

The loss of a machine with an estimated value of $545 million (adjusted for inflation) reduced the USA fleet to just 15 operational units. CNN analyst Cedric Leighton called it bluntly: „a major blow to US surveillance capabilities”. Since February 28, Iran has attacked radar and communications infrastructure at more than seven USA bases in the region.

These strikes are not accidental. Stimson Center analyst Kelly Grieco described these targets as the logistical and command layer of the entire air war. Iran is demonstrating that it can effectively blind and deafen its opponent using relatively cheap means to destroy assets worth hundreds of millions of dollars. Diplomatic Shot in the Foot: Crisis in Jerusalem. The conflict is generating losses not only on the battlefield. Decisions made under wartime pressure are leading to diplomatic catastrophes that undermine Israel's international standing.

The blocking of access to the Church of the Holy Sepulchre for Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa by Israeli police on Palm Sunday, March 29, was an unprecedented act. Church authorities speak of the first such incident in centuries, violating the historical status quo.

The international reaction was immediate and sharp. Polish President Karol Nawrocki condemned the actions of the Israeli police as „an expression of lack of respect for Christian tradition”. French President Emmanuel Macron and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni expressed outrage, and the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned the Israeli ambassador to deliver a formal protest.

Although Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu quickly intervened and reversed the decision, and President Isaac Herzog expressed „deep regret”, the damage was already done. The incident, explained by security concerns following Iranian missile attacks, was perceived as an attack on religious freedom and sparked criticism even within Israel. Former Prime Minister Yair Lapid accused the government of a complete international communication failure. Fire on the Borders: Lebanon and Regional Escalation. An operation that was supposed to be focused on Iran is spreading like wildfire. The Lebanese-Israeli border has become another front, and international forces have found themselves in the crossfire.

The deaths of three Indonesian UNIFIL peacekeepers on March 29-30 in southern Lebanon forced France to call an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council. Furthermore, the French contingent was repeatedly targeted for intimidation by the Israeli army, including pointing weapons at General Paul Sanzey, the UNIFIL Chief of Staff.

French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot called these actions „unacceptable and unjustifiable”. These incidents show how fragile deconfliction mechanisms have become. UNIFIL forces, composed of soldiers from 47 countries, are becoming hostages to the escalation between Israel and the Iranian-backed Hezbollah.

The argument that military action is necessary for security clashes with hard reality. Former US National Security Advisor John Bolton warns Europe that this is also its war, pointing to the range of Iranian missiles and the terrorist threat. Israeli authorities explain their actions in Jerusalem by the real threat from Iranian missiles falling near the Old City.

However, these justifications lose weight when observing their consequences. Instead of building an international coalition against Iran, Israel is alienating its allies. Instead of providing security, the escalation in Lebanon creates a threat to international peacekeepers and risks opening a full-scale northern front.

A month after the start of Operation Epic Fury, the picture is far from what was intended. Instead of a paralyzed regime in Tehran, we see an Iran capable of painful counterattacks. Instead of regional stability, we have chaos in Lebanon and a diplomatic crisis with Europe. Writer Salman Rushdie, who has lived under an Iranian death sentence for decades, is skeptical about the chances of bringing freedom to Iran through bombings.

The architects of this war may have believed that precision strikes would solve the problem. Meanwhile, every subsequent day of the conflict proves that in Middle Eastern geopolitics, there are no simple, surgical cuts.

There are only further layers of complications that no one was able to predict. And costs that everyone bears.