Irish police use force to break a blockade at the country's only refinery. This is not an isolated incident, but a symptom of a deeper malaise: a global energy shock is mercilessly testing the resilience of European economies and exposing the fragility of their foundations.
Global Shock, Local Symptoms. The global shock triggered by the war of the USA and Israel against Iran acts as a litmus test, revealing the structural weaknesses of European economies. The thesis is simple: the energy crisis is not the cause, but a catalyst that accelerates the erosion of existing economic and social models.
The response to rising fuel prices in Ireland has been intervention by the police and the military. On April 11, law enforcement broke the blockade of the Whitegate refinery, the only such facility in the country. Protests by drivers, farmers, and taxi drivers erupted after a more than 20 percent increase in diesel prices since the start of the conflict on February 28, 2026.
By Saturday, according to data from Fuels for Ireland, approximately 600 out of 1,500 fuel stations in the country were out of stock. Government excise tax cuts proved insufficient, consumed by further increases on world markets. The authorities' actions, described by Prime Minister Micheál Martin as a response to an „unacceptable” situation, show the limits of national policy in the face of a global shock.
10.1 million — barrels per day was the loss of oil supply in March 2026, which according to the International Energy Agency is the largest disruption in history.
The Illusion of Strategic Autonomy. Ireland's problem is a micro-scale version of a phenomenon threatening the entire European Union. The warning issued on April 10 by ACI Europe to the European Commission is unequivocal. The community faces a „systemic” shortage of aviation fuel within three weeks if transit through the Strait of Hormuz is not resumed.
The European Union imports about 40% of its refined kerosene via this route. The data is alarming: before the conflict, an average of 140 ships passed through the strait daily; in the 24 hours before the letter's publication, there were only seven. Aviation fuel prices, according to Argus Media, have doubled to $1,573 per ton.
The war in Iran is the third major shock to the world economy since 2020, following the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Each of these crises has exposed further European dependencies – from Chinese supply chains, through Russian gas, to today's oil from the Persian Gulf. The concept of strategic autonomy remains largely a political declaration rather than an operational reality.
The threat to the tourism season and an economy worth €851 billion annually is becoming real. At airports in Italy – in Milan, Venice, and Bologna – refueling restrictions have already been introduced. This shows how close the system is to the edge.
The situation is worsened by the fact that the EU does not have a community mechanism for monitoring aviation fuel reserves. Most member states have stocks for a maximum of 30 days. The crisis reveals a lack of coordination and foresight in a key sector of the economy.
Erosion of Internal Pacts. One could argue that problems such as the impasse in Portuguese wage negotiations are a purely internal matter, unrelated to oil prices. In Portugal, the UGT trade union federation rejected the „Trabalho XXI” labor reform on April 9 after nine months of talks. The dispute involves the government, unions, and divided employer organizations, and President António José Seguro is threatening a veto without an agreement within the Social Partnership.
However, such a view ignores the context. An external economic shock exacerbates internal tensions. Global uncertainty, a projected drop in growth to 3.1% by the IMF, and rising inflation (4.4% in the baseline scenario) reduce the room for compromise. Unions fear precarization, while employers fear a loss of competitiveness. The old model of social dialogue is cracking under new pressure.
GDP Growth Forecasts for 2026 (IMF, April 2026): World: 3.1, Eurozone: 1.1, Germany: 0.8, United Kingdom: 0.8, Middle East and North Africa: 1.1, Iran: -6.1 Similarly in Spain, where the Tax Agency (AEAT) has launched the IRPF settlement campaign. Increased scrutiny of influencers in Andorra or Dubai and technical problems with the Renta Web system are seemingly routine administrative challenges. However, in conditions of economic slowdown and growing budgetary needs, every loophole in the tax system takes on strategic importance.
The End of Old Tools. The outlook is not optimistic. The International Monetary Fund has lowered its growth forecast for the eurozone to 1.1%, and for Germany to just 0.8%. IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas warns that central banks may face a more difficult task than in 2022.
„The braking is going to be painful. You're going to have to inflict a much larger cost on the economy to get the same disinflationary effect.” — Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas via Reuters This is a sign that existing monetary policy tools may prove insufficient or too socially costly. Governments, like Germany's, are trying to respond with shield packages (€1.6 billion for fuel tax cuts), but the IMF suggests this is ineffective.
All these events – from the blockade in Cork to the paralysis in Lisbon – are fragments of the same story. A story about systems designed for times of stability that are now failing in the face of a series of shocks.
While the International Energy Agency reports the largest oil supply disruptions in history and ACI Europe warns of airport paralysis, the Spanish tax office publishes a notice for citizens: Do not fill out tax returns using ChatGPT.
It is a detail that says everything. At a moment of systemic threat, official institutions are focused on managing yesterday's problems.