War in Iran destabilizes energy markets and threatens return of high inflation

The outbreak of open conflict in Iran has led to the paralysis of the Strait of Hormuz, the most important point on the world's energy resource transport map. The blocking of this artery, through which a significant portion of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas LNG flows, triggered an immediate market reaction. Investors fear a repeat of the 2022 energy shock, which is reflected in a drastic increase in freight rates. The cost of chartering supertankers is reaching historic highs, directly translating into fuel prices at stations in Spain, Italy, and Germany. The Strait of Hormuz, connecting the Persian Gulf with the Arabian Sea, is only 33 kilometers wide at its narrowest point. In the past, it has repeatedly been the theater of war, including during the so-called Tanker War in the 1980s, which forced interventions by international fleets.The economic situation in Europe is becoming increasingly tense due to the returning specter of inflation. The latest reports indicate that although European gas storage is currently full, a prolonged blockade of supplies from the Middle East could undermine energy security ahead of the next heating season. Industry representatives in Germany and Spain warn of problems with fertilizer production and disruptions in the supply chains for bulk goods and textiles. Some governments, including the Spanish one, have declared readiness to launch fiscal aid if the energy crisis deepens. Meanwhile, Asian markets, heavily dependent on Iranian oil, are recording deep declines on the stock exchanges in Tokyo and Seoul. 120 tys. $ — is the daily charter cost of a supertanker Experts point to a specific asymmetry in price increases: natural gas is rising in price faster than oil, due to the limited flexibility of the LNG carrier fleet. Many countries declare having strategic reserves allowing them to survive two to three weeks of a complete cutoff, but long-term scenarios remain highly uncertain. China, as the main recipient of raw materials from the region, faces a serious diplomatic and economic dilemma, trying to balance its strategic interests with the need for energy supply stability.