Analyses by French media shortly before the fourth anniversary of the outbreak of war in Ukraine focus on assessing Russia's military potential. According to experts, despite international sanctions, Russia's war economy has given it the capacity to continue fighting. Le Figaro considers the costs the war has inflicted on Russia itself, while L'Express analyzes the technological adaptation of its army. Le Monde cites statements suggesting the conflict's end remains unpredictable, highlighting a strategic stalemate.
Adaptation of the War Economy
French media indicate that Russia has adapted its economy for a prolonged conflict, directing enormous resources to arms production. International sanctions have proven less severe than forecast, and the shift in industrial production has allowed Moscow to replenish equipment losses, though often at the cost of quality and technological sophistication.
Military and Political Stalemate
Le Monde cites expert opinion that after four years of fighting, 'the outcome of this conflict is still far from obvious.' Despite local successes on the front, Russia has not achieved its strategic objectives, and Ukraine, while defending effectively, has not regained lost territories. The situation on the front line seems to indicate a prolonged stalemate.
Internal Cost for Russia
Le Figaro raises the question of the war's impact on the Russian state itself, suggesting the conflict is being waged not only against Ukraine but also 'against itself.' Prolonged mobilization, international isolation, human losses, and the shift of the economy onto a war footing have deep, long-term consequences for Russia's social and economic structure.
French media, analyzing the situation shortly before the fourth anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, focus on assessing the potential and resilience of Russia's war economy. L'Express notes Moscow's ability to conduct combat operations for another year, highlighting the industrial shift and the incomplete effectiveness of Western sanctions. The newspaper points out that the Russian army has learned to function under technological constraints, albeit at the cost of the quality of equipment produced. Le Figaro, on the other hand, ponders the internal costs of the conflict for Russia itself, suggesting that a prolonged war could weaken the foundations of the state and society. Russia's aggression against Ukraine began on February 24, 2022, becoming the largest conventional conflict in Europe since World War II. In response to the invasion, the West imposed a series of unprecedented economic and financial sanctions on Russia. In the assessment presented by Le Monde, the strategic situation remains unclear and far from resolution. An expert quoted by the newspaper states: "L'issue de ce conflit est encore loin d'être évidente" (The outcome of this conflict is still far from obvious). His words reflect a widespread belief among analysts of a stalemate, in which neither Ukraine is able to expel Russian troops from all occupied territory, nor can Russia break Ukrainian resistance and impose its peace terms. The newspaper emphasizes that the prospect of a political solution to the conflict currently seems distant, and military actions are entering a phase of prolonged war of attrition. These analyses indicate an evolution in the perception of the conflict from a dynamic clash with initial, rapid maneuvers towards a frozen, exhausting struggle over resources and endurance. Russia's ability to finance and supply its war machine despite isolation has become a key factor prolonging the conflict. Simultaneously, as Le Figaro notes, the internal costs – human, economic, and social – may in the long term prove as burdensome for the Kremlin as external pressure. Ahead of the invasion's fifth anniversary, the picture is thus one of weary but still combat-capable sides, seeking a decisive advantage under conditions of strategic deadlock.