Acceleration of Inflation in the USA and Europe: Markets React to New Macroeconomic Data

The global economy is at a turning point, confirmed by the latest price index readings from major economic powers. In the United States, the Producer Price Index for goods and services sold by producers rose by 0.5% in January, significantly exceeding analysts' forecasts. The main driver of these changes turned out to be the services sector, which pushed wholesale inflation above expectations, dampening investors' hopes for imminent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The reaction of financial markets was immediate – major indices on Wall Street ended the week in the red, reacting to the risk of a prolonged restrictive monetary policy. The situation in the eurozone is ambiguous and highlights differences between the two largest economies of the bloc. In Germany, inflation in February fell to 2% (according to preliminary data, 1.9% on a harmonized basis), signaling price stabilization among our western neighbors. Quite different data came from France, where inflation rebounded sharply by 1% month-on-month, driven by an increase in household consumption. Despite these tensions, European stock exchanges show relative resilience, recording the longest series of monthly gains in over a decade. The European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve have been waging a coordinated fight against inflation for two years, which after the pandemic and the outbreak of war in Ukraine reached levels not seen since the 1970s.In the energy commodities market, we are observing preparations for a key meeting of the expanded oil cartel. It is expected that the countries associated with the organization will decide to gradually restore production limits, ignoring warnings from some analysts about a possible oversupply. The supply situation is exacerbated by data from the US, where crude oil production in December fell to its lowest level since June 2025. Meanwhile, in South America, the Argentine Senate approved key labor law reforms supported by President Javier Milei, which is expected to pave the way for a $40 billion boom in the copper market, albeit dependent on changes to glacier protection regulations. „US crude oil production hit a six-month low in December.” — EIA StatementProspects for the coming quarters remain uncertain. While Switzerland did record a slight GDP rebound in the fourth quarter of 2025, and Japan is struggling with inflation in the capital slowing below the central bank's target, global sentiment is dictated mainly by concerns about the persistence of inflation in the services sector. Investors are also closely watching China's actions, which are introducing new regulations supporting offshore yuan financing, attempting to stabilize its own financial system in the face of global turbulence.