Elections in Baden-Württemberg: Greens and CDU Neck and Neck in Polls

The upcoming state elections in Baden-Württemberg, scheduled for March 8, 2026, are shaping up to be a key test for the German political scene. Baden-Württemberg is the only federal state where the office of minister-president is held by a representative of the Greens. Although the CDU had been leading in the polls for many months, the latest data from the Infratest dimap institute for ARD indicates a radical shift in sentiment. Both parties can now count on identical support at 26 percent, heralding a fight for every vote until the last minute of the campaign. A significant event in the final hours before the pre-election silence has been an incident involving CDU candidate Manuel Hagel. During a visit to a school, the politician was recorded during a heated exchange with a teacher. Hagel, in a firm manner—deemed by many commentators as outright arrogant—interrupted her, stating that he was speaking with the students at that moment, not with her. The video spread rapidly on social media, becoming an object of ridicule and criticism from political opponents. Hagel himself explains his outburst by the lack of context for the entire situation shown in the recording. For decades, Baden-Württemberg was a bastion of the conservative CDU, which governed the state uninterrupted from 1953 to 2011. The turning point came after the Fukushima disaster, when anti-nuclear sentiments brought a coalition led by the Greens to power. Meanwhile, Cem Özdemir, the Greens' candidate and current federal minister of agriculture, is running a campaign based on the idea of "governing beyond divisions." He announced that in case of victory, he would strive for a broad political agreement to ensure stability for the state in the face of economic problems affecting local industry leaders. At the same time, media point to the high support for the AfD, which in some affluent regions of the state reaches nearly 30 percent. This situation casts doubt on the possibility of easily forming the next government, as the neck-and-neck results of the CDU and Greens may force the creation of a difficult, multi-party coalition. „Ich spreche gerade mit Schülern.” (I am speaking with the students right now.) — Manuel Hagel These elections also have a federal dimension, serving as a verification of Friedrich Merz's strategy ahead of nationwide contests. A CDU success in the industrial bastion of Baden-Württemberg was supposed to signal the Christian Democrats' return to their former strength. However, the mobilization of Green voters, supported by the popularity of outgoing Minister-President Winfried Kretschmann, means the outcome remains an open question.