The Spanish economy is facing a serious slowdown caused by the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. Experts and banking sector representatives warn of a drastic decline in economic growth dynamics. Risks include a sharp increase in energy prices, instability in the real estate market, and a threat to the micro-enterprise sector, which may force the government to take extraordinary stabilization steps in the coming months.

Threat to GDP Growth

The Middle East crisis could lead to a 2 percentage point drop in Spanish Gross Domestic Product.

Increase in Mortgage Costs

Analysts predict inevitable increases in home loan installments if the conflict with Iran is not resolved quickly.

Regression in Power Parity

The percentage of women in director positions in Spain decreased in 2026 to 18.5%.

The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is becoming a key risk factor for the financial stability of the Iberian Peninsula. Gonzalo Gortázar, president of CaixaBank, presented pessimistic forecasts, according to which the prolonged crisis in this region could reduce Spanish Gross Domestic Product even by 2 percentage points. The main channel for transmitting the economic shock remains energy commodity prices, whose increase directly hits production costs and consumer purchasing power. Nadia Calviño, involved in European financial structures, emphasized the need to accelerate reforms aimed at making the continent energy independent. Simultaneously, warning signals are coming from the real estate market. Analysts predict that the lack of rapid de-escalation of the conflict, especially in relations with Iran, will translate into an inevitable increase in mortgage interest rates. The situation is further complicated by the condition of the smallest economic entities. The organization Cepyme has alerted the public to the extreme weakness of micro-enterprises, which under conditions of high inflation and rising financing costs are losing financial liquidity. Despite capital injections from guarantee societies amounting to billions of euros, this sector remains the most exposed to bankruptcies. Spain has been struggling for years with high dependence on external energy supplies, which makes its economy particularly vulnerable to shocks in the oil and gas market, similar to during the oil crisis of the 70s. In the shadow of macroeconomic discussions, political and social disputes are also taking place ahead of the upcoming International Women's Day. In Valencia, feminist organizations and the opposition are protesting against the actions of local authorities, accusing them of attempting to marginalize traditional marches. Statistical data for 2026 indicate a worrying downward trend in the representation of women in top executive positions. The percentage of women serving as CEO in Spanish companies has dropped to 18.5%, prompting calls from trade unions for real changes in pay and recruitment structures. The debate on gender equality in Spain gained momentum after the introduction of the Equality Act in 2007, which became the foundation for later social reforms in the country. „La crisis en Oriente Medio puede reducir el PIB español hasta el 2%.” (The crisis in the Middle East can reduce Spanish GDP by up to 2%.) — Gonzalo Gortázar

Mentioned People

  • Gonzalo Gortázar — President of CaixaBank, warning about the economic effects of the conflict.
  • Nadia Calviño — Spanish economist and politician, dealing with energy security issues.
  • Juanma Moreno — Regional president of Andalusia, participating in the inauguration of medical projects.