The rating agency Fitch announced its decision to maintain Poland's creditworthiness rating at "A-". At the same time, experts upheld the negative outlook, which serves as a clear warning signal for the government in Warsaw. The main factors burdening the Polish economy remain the high public finance sector deficit and rising debt, which limits room for potential rating improvements in the near future.

A- rating maintained

Fitch agency confirmed Poland's current creditworthiness rating, deciding not to downgrade it despite existing risks.

Negative outlook

Maintaining the negative outlook signals a possible future rating downgrade due to the state of public finances.

Weak PiS ratings

A CBOS poll indicates a drop in support for the largest opposition party below 20%, changing the balance of power on the right.

Coalition uncertainty

Speculation about the collapse of Poland 2050 raises concerns about government stability, although public opinion remains divided on this issue.

Fitch Ratings confirmed Poland's long-term foreign currency rating at "A-", while maintaining a negative outlook. This decision came at a time of heightened volatility in financial markets, where the Polish zloty lost value against the euro and dollar, reacting to global risk aversion. Agency experts indicate that while the Polish economy shows resilience to external shocks, the current fiscal trajectory raises serious concerns. Maintaining the negative outlook means there is a real probability of a downgrade in the rating itself within the next dozen or so months if the government does not take effective measures to consolidate public finances. Simultaneously with macroeconomic tensions, the Polish political scene is grappling with a deep crisis. The latest public opinion polls indicate record-low support for Law and Justice, which in a CBOS survey fell below the 20% threshold, marking the weakest result in many years. This situation is dynamically strengthening the position of Confederation, which in some rankings has surpassed Jarosław Kaczyński's party. Meanwhile, within the ruling coalition, uncertainty is growing about the future of Poland 2050. Poles are clearly divided on whether a potential collapse of Szymon Hołownia's formation would lead to the fall of Donald Tusk's entire cabinet. Credit ratings, introduced in the early 20th century, help investors assess a country's ability to repay its obligations. Poland received its first investment-grade rating in 1995, which opened the door to a broad inflow of foreign capital into the domestic bond market. On the Warsaw Stock Exchange, February closed with record results, even though the last session of the month was dominated by "bears" and corrections in valuations following Wall Street. Investors are closely monitoring not only rating agency decisions but also the development of the political situation in the United States. Polls from across the ocean indicate a growing lead for Democrats ahead of the "midterm" elections and American skepticism towards the vision of a "golden era" promised by Donald Trump. These global factors, combined with local fiscal specifics, are currently shaping the mood on the Stock Exchange at Książęca Street.

Mentioned People

  • Jarosław Kaczyński — Chairman of Law and Justice, facing record-low party support ratings.
  • Szymon Hołownia — Leader of Poland 2050, whose condition raises questions about the durability of the ruling coalition.
  • Donald Trump — Former US president, whose vision of a "golden era" is not shared by a majority of citizens in a new poll.