The rating agency Fitch announced its decision to maintain Poland's credit rating at A-. Despite the stabilization of the rating itself, analysts have kept a negative outlook, pointing to growing fiscal risks and a high budget deficit. Meanwhile, markets are observing signals of a slowdown in Europe's decarbonization pace, aimed at protecting industry, while energy costs for households are rising.
Fitch Rating Unchanged
The agency maintained the A- rating but warns about the negative effects of the high deficit on the future assessment.
Retreat from Decarbonization
In Europe, a trend is growing to protect industry at the expense of radical Net Zero climate goals.
Support for Local Governments
The government will allocate nearly PLN 5 billion for civil protection systems in local government units.
Fitch Ratings has decided to maintain Poland's long-term foreign currency rating at 'A-'. This decision, while confirming the country's solid macroeconomic fundamentals, comes with a maintained negative outlook. Agency analysts are paying particular attention to the state of public finances, including the persistently high structural deficit and rising costs of servicing the national debt. The statement indicated that a lack of fiscal consolidation in the coming years could become a direct trigger for a downgrade of the rating itself. Despite these warnings, some market data suggests an unexpected drop in the fiscal deficit in recent readings, which contrasts with earlier, more pessimistic expert forecasts. The rating system allows investors to assess the risk associated with lending money to governments. The A- level signifies a high capacity to meet obligations but is susceptible to adverse economic conditions. Parallel to rating issues, the public debate is dominated by the topic of rising energy costs and climate protection. Media reports indicate a clear retreat from radical decarbonization strategies in Europe under the slogan 'Net Zero is Dead'. This change stems from the need to protect European industry from losing competitiveness, which in turn leads to a revision of plans to phase out fossil fuels. In Poland, this situation translates into alarming forecasts regarding electricity and heating prices. Experts predict that despite falling commodity prices on exchanges, end consumers may pay more due to new emission and tax burdens. In this context, voices are also emerging about the negative impact of the EU's ETS system on the country's economic stability. A- — Poland's credit rating according to Fitch In the technology and digital media sphere, announcements from the HBO platform regarding a crackdown on account sharing have been noted, fitting into a broader trend of increased monetization of streaming services. Simultaneously, on the local market, a significant event is the announcement of support for local governments with an amount close to PLN 5 billion for civil protection purposes. In the real economy, signals are emerging about investments by German giants in Poland, which may indicate the region's sustained investment attractiveness despite geopolitical tensions. However, a serious challenge remains the issue of public debt, which, according to some commentators, blocks the chance for a rapid improvement in the assessment by key rating agencies such as Moody's or the aforementioned Fitch. „Fitch affirms Poland at 'A-'; Outlook Negative” — Fitch Ratings [{"aspekt": "Rating (Fitch)", "przed": "A-", "po": "A-"}, {"aspekt": "Outlook", "przed": "Negative", "po": "Negative"}, {"aspekt": "Deficit trend", "przed": "Increasing", "po": "Decreasing (according to recent data)"}]
Perspektywy mediów: Liberal media emphasize the rating stability and unexpected deficit drop as a government success and the resilience of the Polish economy. Conservative media focus on the negative outlook, growing debt, and threats from EU climate taxes.